Afternon Market Highlights
5/19/2020 2:24:57 PM
Overall quiet trade in the grain markets with corn dancing around amidst big crop ideas and rumblings that China may be in the market for US corn (no confirmation to that notion). The soybean market stepped back on consolidation in the soyoil market after yesterday’s nice rally and no sign of China buying US beans. The wheat market continues its state of mixed behavior with Mpls catching a bid from spring wheat planting delays and Chicago getting some relief from the technical side of life.
- No grain markets Sunday night and Monday in observance of the Memorial Day Holiday. Trade resumes Monday evening at 7 PM Chicago Time.
- The energy markets are mostly higher with June crude oil up 54 at 32.50/barrel.
- The US$ down 255 at 99.411, the gold market is 16-17 bucks stronger at 1751/ounce and the CD$ up 0.0036 at 0.71975.
- DJIA down 165but holding above 24k at 24431, the S&P down 7 at 2942 and the NASDAQ up 31 at 9266.
- The USDA sets payments (from the CoronaVirus impact) to farmers that grow corn, soybeans and spring wheat.
- Payments are as follows: 32 cents for corn, 45 cents for beans and 18 cents for spring wheat on a per bushel basis.
- The payments are said to be based on half of the 2019 production or the number of bushels on hand as of January 15.
Corn prices were slightly higher throughout the day with gains limited from mostly favorable weather conditions with this week’s warmer temperatures across the US Midwest and talk of a pushback on rain events until the weekend.
- Closes: July at $3.21 ¼, up ½ cent, September at $3.25 ¼, up 1 cent and December at $3.34, up 1 ¼ cents.
- Gulf premiums
- Ideas are that this year’s corn acreage will come in between 93.0-95.0 million acres with a yield between 176-180 bushels per acre.
- AgRural estimates the Brazilian corn production at 97.7 mmt versus 100.0 mmt last year and the latest USA forecast of 101.0 mmt. They pegged the 2nd corn crop at 66.7 mmt down from 69.3 mmt last year.
- Brazil’s central and south central areas have been dry for some time and continues to experience dry conditions.
- Spreads: N/U 4 ¼ carry, N/Z 13 carry, U/Z 8 ½ carry, Z/H 12 ¼ carry, Z/N 24 carry.
Soybean prices were on the defensive from weakness in the soyoil market, favorable weather conditions and planting progress well above the 5-year average. Hearing that the next rain event for the WCB gets pushed back until the weekend. Gains stalled as the market awaits the next round of Chinese business.
- Closes: July at $8.43, down 2 cents, August at $8.45 ¾, down 2 cents, November at $8.50 ¾, down 2 cents. The products were weaker with meal down 70 cents and oil down 21 points.
- Soymeal garnered some underlying support with the emergence of bargain buyers (after sinking to its lowest level in nearly a year).
- Gulf premiums were
- Ideas are that this year’s soybean acreage will fall between 83-85 million acres with a yield between 50.0-52.0 bushels per acre.
- Spreads: N/Q 2 ¾ carry, N/X 7 ½ carry, Q/X 4 ¾ carry, X/F 3 ½ carry, X/H 3 ½ inverse, X/N 2 ¼ carry.
Wheat prices were mixed from farmers struggling to get the spring wheat planted to beneficial rain events across the US Southern Plains. Support in Chicago comes from views of being oversold. KC was said to have seen pressure as the Texas winter wheat harvest begins.
- July closes: Mpls at $5.08 ¼, up 3 ½ cents, KC at $4.41, down 5 ¼ cents and Chicago at $4.99, up 2 cents (failed to close at or above $5).
- Spreads: Mpls N/U 11 ½ carry, N/N 54 ¼ carry, U/Z 13 carry.........Kansas City N/U 6 ¾ carry, N/N 40 ¼ carry, U/Z 11 ¾ carry........Chicago N/U 2 ¾ carry, U/Z 9 carry.
- Duluth stocks were down 1.1 mb to 17.8 mb and Mpls stocks were up 95k bushels to 3.7 mb.
- Weather pattern for the US Southern Plains looks a bit wet for much of the weekend and next week.
- Mpls Sep sits at a 72 cent premium to the KC Sep.....Mpls Sep sits at a 10 cent premium to the Chicago Sep..........Chicago Sep sits at a 53 ¼ cent premium to the KC Sep.