· The US dollar index was lower again today, down 0.782 points at 91.070.
· The DJIA was stronger again today, up 202 points to 25,777.
· Crude oil was stronger yet again today, up $0.41 at $63.80.
· Chicago Board of Trade January futures for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal expired today.
· CHS Hedging is offering Grain Hedging classes on January 31st and Energy Hedging classes on February 1st, to register please visit us at chshedging.com.
· Due to Martin Luther King Day, grain markets will be closed Sunday night and Monday during the day. Trade starts back up Monday evening. CHS Hedging will be closed Monday, with an order intern here from 8am-Noon.
Grains and Oilseeds:
Corn traded nearly unchanged until 11 AM CST at which time a neutral to bearish report sent the corn market lower. Wheat also pressured corn lower as it too saw a bearish report. The March contract settled down 1 ½ cents at $3.46 ¼, the May was down 1 ¼ cents at $3.54 ¾, the July was down 1 ½ cents at $3.62 ¾, and the December contract closed down 1 ¼ cents at $3.80 ½.
Current spreads: H/K 8 ½ ¢ carry, K/N 8 ¢ carry, N/Z 17 ¾ ¢ carry.
· In today’s report traders were expecting: corn yield and production to increase slightly, and it showed an increase in corn yield to 176.6 bushels per acre and increased production to 14.604 billion bushels. They also lowered harvested area to 82.7 million acres from 83.119 million acres, a small surprise to the trade.
· Corn carryout was expected to be lowered due to higher ethanol production, but US ending stocks were raised to 2.447 billion bushels from 2.437 billion bushels in December and higher than trade estimates at 2.431 billion bushels.
· US December 1 quarterly stocks were reported at 12.516 billion bushels, higher than December report at 12.386 billion bushels and the average trade estimates 12.431 billion bushels.
·US/World stocks to continue to remain large.
· 320,000 metric tons of corn were sold to unknown destinations, by US exporters for the 2017-2018 marketing year.
· In an international tender that closed Friday, South Korea’s MFG bought 70,000 tonnes of corn for shipment between March 22 and April 10th from the Pacific North West Coast of the US. The price was $193.08 cost and freight included, with an added $1 charge for additional port unloading.
Soybeans saw a small bounce today after a neutral to slightly bullish report was released by the USDA, and after beans traded down every day since last Friday. March soybeans closed up 12 ½ cents to $9.60 ½, May beans were up 12 ¾ cents at $9.72, July soybeans closed up 13 cents at $9.81 ¼, and November soybeans closed up 13 ¼ cents at 9.83 ½.
Current spreads: H/K 11 ¼ ¢ carry, K/N 9 ½ ¢ carry, N/X 1 ½ ¢ carry.
· Traders, leading up to today’s report, were expecting bean yield and production to be raised. Today the USDA lowered soybean yield and production to 4.392 billion bushels and yield to 49.1 bushels per acre, while leaving harvested acres practically unchanged at 89.5 million acres.
· Soybean exports were cut 65 million bushels today, as traders expected them to be reduced.
· US quarterly stocks as of December 1 were increased from last year, but lower than trade expectations at 3.157 billion bushels.
· Strong demand leading up to China’s Lunar New Year had soybean imports for December into China at the second highest level on record.
· NE Brazil looks drier nearby, missing 6-10 day rain, but looks wetter 11-15.
· Soymeal futures were stronger today, as March was up $4.50 to $309.80 while soybean oil was weaker with March down 0.03 cents to 33.15 cents.
Chicago wheat traded 12 ¾ -11 ½ cents lower, Kansas City traded 13 ½ -14 cents lower and Minneapolis trade was 16 ¼ - 14 ¼ cents lower. The Minneapolis premium over KC and Chicago is $2.02 ¾ -2.08 ½ for March contracts and $1.95 ½ - 2.01 for May contracts.
Current Spreads: Chicago H/K 13 ¾ cent carry, KC H/K 13 ½ ¢ carry, Mpls H/K 8 ¢ carry, Mpls K/N 4 ¢ carry.
· Wheat was weaker today as the USDA reported winter wheat seedings at much higher than trade anticipated and US stocks were also slightly higher than expected.
· Trade for today’s report was expecting ending stocks about unchanged. The US 2017-2018 ending stocks were higher than expected at 989 million bushels while trade was expecting 959 million bushels.
· Today the USDA kept winter wheat seedings about the same as last year at 32.608 million acres, much higher than trade expectations at 31.107 million acres.
· US quarterly stocks were also higher than expected at 1.874 billion bushels compared to trade average at 1.849 billion bushels.
· Russia reported today wheat exports for the period January 2017-November 2017 at 28.8 million metric tons, up from last year’s number at 22.9 million tons for the same period. USDA also raised Russian wheat production to 85 million metric tons from83 million metric tons, and raised Russian exports from 33.5 million metric tons to 35 million metric tons.
· Seeing pressure from a strong Euro, March Wheat EuroNext futures found new contracts lows today.
Cattle markets were higher today as February cattle settled up $0.425 at $117.375 while April cattle were up $0.725 at $119.45. Feeder cattle traded higher today, as March closed $1.375 up at $142.65 and April gaining $1.30 to $143.00.
·USDA reported daily cattle slaughter at 116,000 head, down 2,000 head from a week ago and unchanged from a year ago today.
· Beef packer margins came in at $49.70/head.
· Boxes were lower today as Choice traded down $0.40 to $208.67 and Selects were down $0.67 at $202.28.
Lean hogs were stronger today as the February contract traded $0.775 higher to settle at $71.575 while the April contract traded $0.575 higher at $74.325.
·USDA reported daily hog slaughter at 454,000 head, up 15,000 head from a week ago and up 34,000 from a year ago today.
· This morning’s carcass values were $1.16 higher at $80.20. Bellies were $1.39 higher at $130.26 with 201 loads traded.
· Pork packer margins came in at $10.15/head.