· The US dollar index was lower today, down 0.232 points at 90.210.
· The DJIA higher today, trading up 511 points to 24,703.
· Nearby crude oil was higher today, up $0.26 at $59.46.
· January NOPA Crush is out on Thursday, February 15th at 11 AM CST.
· The Lunar New Year in China begins on Friday, February 16th. China’s markets will be closed from Lunar New Year Eve on the 15th through the 21st of February.
· Markets will be closed Monday, February 19th for Presidents’ Day. Markets will close on Friday like normal and open again Monday night at 7 PM CST.
· March options expire February 23rd and First Notice Day for March futures is February 28th.
· USDA Prospective plantings report will be out Thursday, March 29th.
Grains and Oilseeds:
Corn saw spillover support from wheat markets and the soybean complex as well as export demand, as US corn is very competitive in world markets right now. The March contract settled up 5 cents at $3.67, the May was up 5 cents at $3.74 ¾, the July was up 5 cents at $3.82 ½, and the December contract closed up 4 ¾ cents at $3.97.
Current spreads: H/K 7 ½ ¢ carry, K/N 8 ¢ carry, N/Z 14 ½ ¢ carry.
· March corn sees resistance at $3.67 ¾ and $3.69 with support at $3.62 and $3.57.
· Export inspections were reported at 835,131 tonnes, on the low end of trade estimates at 800,000-1,100,000 tonnes, and compared to last week’s numbers at 1,073,868 tonnes.
· Traders estimate that South American corn production will be lower than originally thought, due to a couple of factors weighing on their minds. First of all, Brazil’s second corn crop is projected to be lower due to rains slowing the harvest of soybeans and planting of corn. Second, as Argentina struggles to receive forecasted rain, therefore corn and soybean yields decline with no guarantee to see relief soon.
· As of February 6th managed money had cut their net short position to 82,924 contracts, down from 130,942 the week before. This is their most bullish stance since the end of August.
South American weather was the highlight of the trade in the soy complex today, as rains in Argentina this weekend were disappointing once again, sparking a contract high in March soymeal. The March soybeans closed up 18 ¾ cents at $10.01 ¾, May beans were up 19 cents at $10.12 ½, July soybeans closed up 18 ½ cents at $10.22 and November soybeans closed up 14 ¼ cents at $10.14 ¼.
Current spreads: H/K 10 ½ ¢ carry, K/N 9 ¾ ¢ carry, N/X 7 ¾ cent inverse.
· Concerns about weather in Argentina today overshadowed news that USDA reported about the cancellation of 455,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2017-2018 marketing year.
· The USDA reported export sales of 314,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown. 198,000 metric tons were for 2017-2018 marketing year delivery, while 116,000 were for 2018-2019 marketing year delivery.
· Export inspections were reported today at 1,319,038 metric tons, above trade expectations at 800,000-1,100,000 metric tons, and compared to last week inspections at 1,303,723 metric tons.
· Argentina got less rain than expected over the weekend, with weather drying out there for the upcoming week. As we get into the weekend, we see some scattered rain in the north and east parts of Argentina, and then rain limited to the western 1/3 in the 6-15 day forecast. Brazil had showers over the weekend, slowing harvest, but dries out for the week and looks wetter again for the upcoming weekend.
· The March soymeal contract reached a contract high of $358.20 bringing soybean prices higher with it.
· March soybeans see resistance at $10.04 ¾ with support at $9.90.
· Soymeal futures were stronger today, as March was up $14.00 to $357.80 while soybean oil was lower with March down 0.1 points to 31.85 cents.
Chicago wheat traded 14 ½ -15 cents higher, Kansas City traded 11 ¾ -12 ½ cents higher and Minneapolis trade was 6 ¼ -6 ¾ cents higher. The Minneapolis premium over KC and Chicago is $1.32 ½ - $1.46 for March contracts and $1.29 ¾ - $1.46 ½ for May contracts.
Current Spreads: Chicago H/K 12 cent carry, KC H/K 15 ¼ ¢ carry, Mpls H/K 12 ¾ ¢ carry, Mpls K/N 8 ¾ ¢ carry.
· Wheat markets across the board were stronger today with KC leading the way on dry weather concerns in hard red winter wheat country.
· Export inspections today were reported at 487,902 tonnes, within trade expectations between 325,000-575,000 tonnes, and compared to last week’s inspections at 428,557 tonnes.
· Last week Russian wheat prices rose, due to multi-month highs in Chicago supporting the market and logistical issues due to storms. 12.5 protein wheat in the Black Sea sourced from Russia was $197 per tonne FOB, up $2 per tonne from the week before.
· Snow favored the central plains and Midwest last weekend with rain in the delta and south east regions of the plains. Dry weather dominates the Southwestern Plains and limited rain showers are expected late in the week for the far southeastern Plains, Delta and southern Midwest. Rainfall is forecast for the southern plains next week as well, but the best showers with the largest precipitation are expected to miss the driest areas.
· March Chicago wheat sees resistance at $4.64 ½ with support at $4.51 ¾ and $4.48 ¼. Minneapolis March wheat sees resistance at $6.15 ½ with support at $6.01 ¾ and $6.00.
The live cattle market was higher today as February cattle gained $0.55 at $127.125 while April cattle gained $1.50 at $125.125. Feeder cattle traded higher today, as March closed up $1.425 at $147.675 and April up $1.50 to $149.525.
· USDA reported daily cattle slaughter at 110,000 head, down 4,000 head from one week ago and down 1,000 head from a year ago today.
· Beef packer margins came in at $25.50/head.
· Boxes were higher today as Choice traded up $1.50 to $208.02 and Selects were up $1.77 at $204.51.
Lean hogs were mixed today as the February contract traded $0.10 lower to settle at $73.075 while the April contract traded $1.525 higher at $70.525.
· USDA reported daily hog slaughter at 462,000 head, up 1,000 head from a week ago today and up 21,000 head from a year ago today.
· The Iowa/Minnesota daily Direct Hog Report Stated a weighted average of $69.08 down $0.99 from the previous day’s trade.
· This morning’s carcass values were $1.27 higher at $75.71. Bellies were $6.01 higher at $120.04 with 129 loads traded.
· Pork packer margins came in at $1.25/head.