Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

  • Extended forecasts continue to call for a mix of normal temperature and precipitation across the Corn Belt which should aid in crop development.
  • Energy markets continued their downtrend with nearby by WTI trading down $0.16 at $70.22 per barrel at last look.
  • The US Dollar index managed to hold some strength today and was up 0.070 to 94.790 points. The Dow Jones at last look was up 188 to 24,889 points.
  • The Commitment of Traders will be released tomorrow at 2:30 pm central time.

 

Corn

  • The corn market was higher on a surprisingly bullish USDA Supply and Demand report today.
  • In the USDA monthly Supply and Demand report, they estimated 2018/19 corn yield at 174 bushels per acre (unchanged), harvested acres at 81.8 million acres (up 1.1 million acres), and US carryout at 1.552 billion bushels (down 25 million bushels). The average trade estimate for US carryout was seen at 1.712 billion bushels.
  • The US corn stocks to use ratio was seen at 10.5% today, down from 10.8% in June, and the lowest level we have seen since 13/14. World stocks to use on the other hand were seen at 13.9%, the smallest number in over 25 years.
  • CIF corn was weaker on the higher futures trade today.
  • Both September and December corn set contract lows ahead of the report today, and after the report they both broke yesterday’s high.
  • Closes: September at $3.4575, up 5.75 cents, December at $3.5925, up 6 cents and March at $3.71, up 6 cents.
  • Spreads were mostly flat with the U/Z at a 13.5 carry, Z/H at a 12 carry, Z/N at a 24.75 carry.

 

Oilseeds

  • The soybean market was able to trade higher on the coat tails of corn today.
  • The USDA reported 2018/19 soybean yield at 48.5 bushels per acre (unchanged), harvested acres at 88.9 million acres (700,000 acres), and US carryout at 580 million bushels (up 195 million bushels). The average trade estimate for US carryout was seen at 471 million bushels.
  • US soybean stocks to use ratio for 18/19 is seen at 13.7%, the highest level we’ve seen since 06/07.
  • August and November soybeans also set new contract lows before trading higher with corn midday.
  • CIF and processor soybean bids were relatively unchanged today while Brazilian cash beans traded firmer yet again.
  • November soybean’s Relative Strength Index is seen back below 30% at 27.8%.
  • Bean Closes: August at $8.3375, up a .75 cents, November at $8.4925, up a 1 cent, and January at $8.59, up a .5 cents.
  • Products were mixed, with meal closing at $330.90, up $0.40, and soyoil closing at 28.27, down 16 points.
  • Spreads: Q/X 15.5 cent carry, X/F 9.75 cent carry, X/N 36.5 cent carry.

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market traded stronger today as SRW and HRS production came in below the average estimates.
  • The USDA Supply and Demand report estimated all wheat production at 1.881 billion bushels, above the average estimate of 1.858 billion bushels. Ending stocks were seen at 985 million bushels, above the estimate of 973 million bushels.
  • HRW wheat production was seen declining to 657 million bushels vs the estimate of 650 million bushels. HRS wheat production jumped a big 199 million bushels to 584 million bushels, but was below the estimate of 589 million bushels. SRW saw a production increase of 11 million bushels to 303 million bushels, but was also below the estimate of 316 million bushels.
  • Saudi Arabia is tendering for 595,000 tons of wheat.
  • September and December Mpls wheat both set contract lows ahead of the report.
  • September closes: Mpls at $5.33, up 5 cents, KC at $4.805, up 8 cents, Chicago at $4.845, up 12.75 cents.
  • Spreads: Mpls U/Z 18.75 cent carry, Kansas City U/Z 24.25 cent carry, Chicago U/Z 16.75 cent carry.

 

Livestock

  • Boxed beef continued to drift lower as summer heat continues to take its toll on demand, choice boxed beef was down $0.82 this morning trading at $206.62,   selects were off $0.34 trading at $196.80 per cwt .
  • Profit margins continue to slip with packers making $138.05 per head.
  • There’s been very little  cash trade this week at $110.00, and $173 to $175  dressed. Current bids are $108 and offers are $114.
  • Cash hogs are lower again down $.41 at $75.86, while pork cutouts are down $.50 at $83.60 per cwt.
  • Packer margins for pork remain solidly in the black, with margins $7.20 per head.