Afternoon Market Highlights
4/3/2019 4:03:12 PM
- There continues to be tension regarding the potential closure of the U.S. Mexico border, with Mexico’s president saying that they are in constant communication with U.S. authorities to keep the border open.
- The USDA April Crop Production report and USDA Supply and Demand report will be released on Tuesday, April 9th at 11:00 AM CDT.
- The energy markets were mixed today, with May crude trading at $62.41 down 0.16.
Corn finished the day higher on short covering as concerns arise about planting delays due to wet weather. Delayed planting could lead to a reduction in corn acres, but we still have large stocks which helps limit the upside potential. There also was some spillover strength from Chicago wheat today.
- Weekly ethanol production increased this week to 990,000 bpd. This is a 24,000 bpd increase. Ethanol inventories decreased by 400,000 to 24 million barrels.
- Trade estimates for weekly export sales range from 700,000 to 1,100,000 tonnes for the 2018-2019 marketing year.
- Closes: May at $3.62 ¾ up 1 ¼; July at $3.72 up 1 ¼; September at $3.80 ½; December at $3.90 ¾ up 1 ¼.
- Spreads: K/N 9 cent carry; N/U 8 ½ cent carry; N/Z 18 ½ cent carry; Z/H 14 ¼ cent carry.
Soybeans traded both sides of the board today before closing lower. Trade talks between the U.S. and China are taking place in Washington this week, with both sides assuring that progress has been made. In the May beans, $9.00 has acted as a point of psychological resistance, and we were unable to close above this point again.
- A private analyst estimated the Brazilian soybean crop to be 114.5 million tonnes, and the Argentine crop to be 55 million tonnes.
- Trade estimates for the 2018-2019 marketing year weekly export sales range from 800,000 to 1,500,000 tonnes for soybeans, 100,000 to 350,000 tonnes for soymeal, and 0 to 25,000 tonnes for soyoil.
- May soy meal was up 0.4 at $311.00, and soybean oil was down 0.16 at 28.80.
- Closes: May at $8.98 ¾ down 1 ¼; July at $9.12 ¼ down 1 ¼; August at $9.18 down 1 ½; November at $9.32 down ¾.
- Spreads: K/N 13 ½ cent carry; N/Q 6 cent carry; N/X 19 ½ cent carry; X/F 9 ½ cent carry.
The wheat markets were mixed today, with Chicago wheat and Kansas City rising higher, while Minneapolis spring wheat continues to fall. Six of the Minneapolis wheat futures contracts set fresh contract lows. The weakness is Minneapolis wheat can be attributed to improving weather and a lack of demand. The strength in Chicago and Kansas City wheat stems from short covering. The May Chicago wheat closed above its 10-day moving average of $4.66.
- Jordan tendered for 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins, with a tender deadline of April 9th.
- A private analysts predicts the U.S. 2019 winter wheat production to be 1.276 billion bushels.
- Trade estimates for weekly export sales range from 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes for the 2018-2019 marketing year.
- May closes: Chicago at $4.71 up 7; Kansas City at $4.37 up 3 ¾; Minneapolis at $5.35 down 7.
- Spreads: Chicago K/N 3 ½ cent carry; Kansas City K/N 6 ¾ cent carry; Minneapolis K/N 7 ¼ cent carry.
The livestock markets were mixed, with live cattle and feeder cattle mostly lower and lean hogs mostly higher. The lean hog futures continued to rise, but the pork products were mostly lower this morning. Lean hogs will return to their normal $3.00 limit tomorrow, after having expanded limits of $4.50 today. Live cattle were mostly lower, with the deferred months seeing modest gains. April feeder cattle closed a nickel higher, but the deferred months were lower. April feeders closed below their 100-day moving average of $145.39.
- African swine fever continues to pose a problem, with Cambodia reporting their first outbreak. China’s ag ministry will now require pork processors to test for presence of the virus starting May 1st.
- Feeder closes: April at $144.75 up 0.05; May at $147.275 down 0.425; August at $154.35 down 0.75.
- Live closes: April at $125.775 down 0.45; June at $119.00 down 0.65; August at $115.775 down 0.475.
- Lean hog closes: April at $79.075 up 0.125; May at $88.40 up 4.50; June at $94.85 up $3.325.
- Packer margins were estimated at $79.75 for beef and $3.25 for pork.
- AM boxed beef values estimated on 72 loads as follows: Choice at $225.50 down 0.23; Selects at 219.03 up 0.54.
- AM pork product values estimated on 143 loads as follows: carcass cutouts at $81.31 down 0.40; loins at $72.32 down 2.73; ribs at $127.15 down 1.88; hams at $64.31 down 1.76; bellies at $148.28 up 2.58.