Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

  • The federal register reported that the U.S. tariffs on China will increase to 25% from 10% on May 10th, 2019 unless a trade agreement is met.
  • Last trading day for May grains, oilseeds, and hogs is Tuesday, May 14th.
  • The U.S. will implement a tariff on tomatoes entering the U.S. for 17.5%. The tariff will likely go into effect next week.

 Corn

Corn traded lower today as the weather outlook for many areas is starting to show a window of improving conditions for fieldwork. This could allow for the corn planting to catch up to the average. Crop progress is released on Monday at 3:00 PM CT. July corn closed below it’s 20-day moving average of $3.65 ½.

  • Weekly ethanol production was increased 12,000 bpd to 1.036 bpd. Ethanol inventories were down 0.2 million barrels to 22.7 million barrels.
  • Estimates for weekly export sales are 500,000 to 800,000 metric tonnes for old crop and 50,000 to 200,000 metric tonnes for new crop.
  • Closes: July at $3.64 ¼ down 2 ¼; September at $3.72 ¼ down 1 ¾; December at $3.82 ¼ down 1 ½; March at $3.95 down 1 ½.
  • Spreads: N/U 7 ¾ cent carry; U/Z 10 cent carry; N/Z 18 cent carry; Z/H 13 cent carry.

 Oilseeds

Soybeans traded lower today as the tensions remain high regarding the U.S. China trade deal. There is also concern that the USDA’s WASDE report could raise the U.S. ending stocks, which are already quite high.

  • A USDA attaché in China sees Chinese soybean imports falling to 84 mmt vs 94.1 mmt in the previous marketing year.
  • Egypt’s GASC purchased 18,500 mt of soyoil and 30,000 mt of sunflower oil in an international tender. The soyoil was purchased for approximately $672.63 for delivery between July and August.
  • Estimates for weekly export sales are 300,000 to 650,000 metric tonnes of old crop soybeans and 50,000 to 450,000 metric tonnes for new crop; 75,000 to 250,000 metric tonnes of old crop soy meal and 0 to 50,000 metric tonnes of new crop; and 5,000 to 26,000 metric tonnes of old crop soyoil and no new crop sales.
  • Closes: July at $8.27 ¼ down 3 ½; August at $8.33 ½ down 3 ½; November at $8.50 ½ down 2 ½; January at $8.62 ¼ down 2.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ¼ cent carry; Q/X 16 ¾ cent carry; N/X 23 ¼ cent carry; X/F 11 ½ cent carry.

 Wheat

Wheat traded both sides of the board today before closing mostly lower. The weakness is wheat is likely a combination of trade uncertainty, a potential increase in stocks on the WASDE, and spillover weakness from corn. Exports have remained light in the market as well, as evidenced by the weekly export sales estimates.

  • The Russian Ag Ministry is considering extending zero duty wheat exports. This comes as the reduction of wheat duties implemented on July 1st, 2015 is near its original end date of July 1st, 2019.
  • Estimates for weekly export sales are 75,000 to 250,000 metric tonnes of old crop and 100,000 to 350,000 new crop.
  • July Closes: Chicago at $4.39 down ½; Kansas City at $4.03 ¼ down ¾; Minneapolis at $5.19 ¾ down 1 ¼.
  • Spreads: Chicago N/U 8 ½ cent carry; Kansas City N/U 10 ½ cent carry; Minneapolis N/U 8 ¼ cent carry.

 Livestock

The livestock markets were mostly lower today. Hogs were mostly lower except for the front month May, which was higher at the close. The cash values have remained firm, but the market is nervous about the U.S. China trade deal. June hogs closed below their 50-day moving average of $89.30. Both feeder and live cattle closed lower today in what appears to be spec selling. The Memorial Day holiday is fast approaching, which leaves potential to bring futures higher. Cash trade was seen today at $120.00 live.  Boxed beef values have continued to sink lower, although the load count has been high indicating demand is present.

  • At the Fed Cattle Exchange 863 head were offered and 670 sold for an average weighted price of $120.00.
  • Feeder closes: May at $135.775 down $1.775; August at $143.875 down $1.875; September at $144.85 down $1.725.
  • Live closes: June at $111.075 down $1.15; August at $107.40 down $1.45; October at $107.65 down $1.625.
  • Lean hog closes: May at 83.575 up 0.625; June at $88.55 down 0.45; July at $90.75 down 1.225.
  • Packer margins were estimated at $99.20 for beef and $1.75 for pork.
  • Today’s slaughter was estimated at 122,000 head of cattle vs 121,000 last year and 473,000 hogs vs 463,000 last year.
  • Afternoon pork product values on 262 loads: carcass cutouts at $84.94 down $0.73; loins at $76.70 down$ 1.94; ribs at $161.12 down $1.68; hams at $70.78 down $1.57; bellies at $122.80 up $1.46.
  • Afternoon boxed beef values on 181 loads: Choice at $223.01 down $0.86; Selects at $207.49 down $4.34.