Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

  • The WASDE and the May Crop Report will be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM Central.
  • The Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis and Kansas City conducted a banker survey that saw the U.S. China trade dispute as the biggest risk to the farm economy.
  • CHS Hedging is offering a variety of classes including Grain hedging I & II, Energy risk management, and Introduction to technical analysis. For more information and to register, please visit www.chshedging.com.

 Corn

Corn traded lower today amidst the continuing U.S.-China trade dispute. Multiple headlines have been circulating today about the “beautiful letter” President Trump received from the Chinese President Xi Jinping. Reports have also said that Trump will probably speak with President Xi soon. Corn felt further pressure from the WASDE report tomorrow which could show an increase in stocks due to a decrease in exports and corn for ethanol usage. There is also an improving weather forecast for much of the corn belt as there appears to be a break in the rain coming.

  • The USDA reported an export sale of 107,000 metric tonnes of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
  • Closes: July at $3.53 ¼ down 11; September at $3.62 down 10 ¼; December at $3.72 ¾ down 9 ½; March at $3.86 ¾ down 8 ¼.
  • Spreads: N/U 8 ¾ cent carry; U/Z 10 ¾ cent carry; N/Z 19 ½ cent carry; Z/H 14 ¼ cent carry.

 Oilseeds

Soybeans traded lower today on increasing fears related to the U.S.-China trade war. If a deal isn’t reached, the current tariffs on Chinese goods will increase from 10% to 25% at 12:01 AM Friday morning. Soybeans broke through a 10-year low today, with the May contract falling as low as $7.95 ¼ before closing above that level at $8.00 ¼.

  • The USDA reported an export sale of 369,000 metric tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. 120,000 metric tonnes is for delivery the 2018/2019 marketing year and 249,000 metric tonnes is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year.
  • Soybean export sales were 116,200 mt, but the cancellations for the week were 265,300 leaving a net negative 149,100 mt for sales.
  • Closes: July at $8.12 ¾ down 14 ½; August at $8.19 ½ down 14; November at $8.35 ¾ down 14 ¾; January at $8.48 ½ down 13 ¾.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ½ cent carry; Q/X 16 ½ cent carry; N/X 23 ¼ cent carry; X/F 13 cent carry.

 Wheat

The wheat markets traded lower again today in theme with other markets regarding the uncertainty around the U.S.-China trade dispute.  Again, there is also concern regarding the WASDE report tomorrow but the trade dispute appears to have taken the center stage.

  • South Africa’s wheat crop was reported at 1.868 mmt, which is up from last years crop of 1.535 mmt.
  • July Closes: Chicago at $4.29 ½ down 9 ½; Kansas City at $3.97 ¾ down 5 ¾; Minneapolis at $5.16 ¾ down 3 ¾.
  • Spreads: Chicago N/U 9 cent carry; Kansas City N/U 10 ¾ cent carry; Minneapolis N/U 8 cent carry.

 Livestock

The hog market traded both sides of the board before closing mixed. Hogs are feeling the trade tensions, as the volatility in the market has continued. June hogs saw a range today of $4.225. The carcass values have remained firm, which should help to support futures. Cattle were mixed today as well as they too felt the trade war tensions. The weekly export sales this morning were good, and the boxed beef values were slightly lower today after they had fallen aggressively yesterday. Cash trade remains in the $119 to $122 range seen earlier in the week.

  • Weekly export sales were 27,300 metric tonnes of beef and 24,700 metric tonnes of pork.
  • Feeder closes: $136.25 up $0.175; August at $144.475 up $0.275; September at $145.275 up $0.20.
  • Live closes: June at $111.95 up $0.65; August at $107.60 down $0.075; October at $107.65 down $0.25.
  • Lean hog closes: May at $83.75 up $0.125; June at $90.00 up $1.45; July at $90.975 up $0.35.
  • Packer margins were estimated at $94.15 for beef and $1.25 for pork.
  • Today’s slaughter is estimated at 119,000 cattle vs 120,000 last year and 472,000 hogs vs 458,00 last year.
  • The afternoon boxed beef values on 181 loads: Choice at $222.47 down $0.54 and Selects at $207.08 down $0.41.
  • The afternoon pork product values on 202 loads: carcass cutouts at $86.82 up $1.88; loins at $80.00 up $3.30; ribs at $169.76 up $8.64; hams at $72.24 up $1.46; bellies at $124.50 down $1.70.