Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

More rain events across the ECB and Southern Plains bring higher prices across the grain markets.  Funds continue to cover their shorts. Hopes are that the USMCA trade agreement gets approved this summer with Canada and Mexico ready to start the approval process. 

  • Energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil down over 2 bucks at $56.52/barrel.
  • The US$ and the gold market are firmer. Wall Street is stronger also.
  • CHS Hedging is offering Energy Hedging classes June 19, Grain Hedging classes June 25 and Technical Trading classes on June 26.Go to our website at www.chshedging.com for registration and class details.
  • ICG trims their world corn production 7.0 million tonnes to 1.118 billion tonnes, because of significantly smaller outlook for the US corn crop this year. Their US corn production is estimated at 362 million tonnes compared to 371 million tonnes previously. 

Corn

Prices traded higher as weather maps turn wetter.  Lots of uncertainty for the corn crop this year involving acres planted, harvested and what the late crop will yield.  Farmers continue to plant this week on favorable weather this week.  There is talk of planting shorter day maturing varieties as the planting window comes to a close here shortly.  There is also some talk of re-plant on acres that not seen the crop pop up above ground because of cool, wet conditions. 

  • Closes: July at $436 ¼, up 17 ½ cents, September at $4.45 ¼, up 17 ¼ cents, December at $4.52 ¼, up 16 ½ cents.
  • Gulf premiums are 3 cents firmer for May, 4-5 cents firmer for June and steady for A/S.
  • Weekly export estimates: 450-850 tmt.
  • Anther case of African Swine Fever detected; this time in North Korea. China struggles to contain the disease.
  • Weekly ethanol production saw a 14k barrel decrease, compared to a 20k increase in production last week.
  • Spreads: N/U 8 ¾ carry, U/Z 6 ¾ carry, Z/H 7 carry, Z/N 8 carry, N20/Z20 40 cent inverse. 

Oilseeds

The soybean market works higher as the funds continue to cover their short position from slowed planting progress. Progress this week is not looking all that great in the ECB.  Lots of rain came in recent days and more rain is still to come over the next several days. 

  • Closes: July at $8.89, up 17 cents, August at $8.95 ½, up 17 cents, November at $9.15 ½, up 17 cents. The products were higher with meal up 8-9 bucks and oil up 5 points.
  • Gulf premiums were 5 cents weaker for May, steady to 2 cents weaker for June and unchanged for A/S.
  • Weekly export sales estimates: 250-650 tmt for beans, 150-375 tmt for meal and 8-22 tmt for soyoil.
  • IGC pegs the 2019/20 world soybean production at 358 million tonnes compared to 363 million tonnes in 2018/19.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ½ carry (7 carry is the target), Q/X 20 carry (21 is the target), X/N 29 ½ carry. 

Wheat

The wheat market traded sharply higher on concerns of damage to the winter wheat crop and strength in the row crops.  Prices drew additional support from dryness in Canada, North Dakota and parts of Montana. 

  • July closes: Mpls $5.63 ½, up 14 ¾ cents, KC $4.78, up 24 ¾ cents, Chicago $5.14 ½, up 24 cents.
  • Weekly export estimates: 200-600 tmt.
  • IGC pegs 2019/20 world wheat production at 766 million tonnes, up 4.0 million tonnes from their previous estimate.
  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 8 ¼ carry, U/Z 12 ¼ carry, Kansas City N/U at 11 ½ carry, N/N 64 carry.KC gained on Mpls with Mpls N at an 84-cent premium to KC N.