Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

The grain markets were mixed on a variety of things, with weather and prevent plant acres being at the top of the list. The market awaits news about retaliation from Mexico after President Trump proposed 5% tariffs on all Mexican imports with progression to 25% by October if Mexico does not curtail their illegal immigration into the US. 

  • CHS Hedging is offering Energy Hedging classes June 19, Grain Hedging classes June 25 and Technical Trading classes on June 26.Go to our website at www.chshedging.com for registration and class details.
  • The next USDA S&D report is scheduled for June 11th at 11 AM Chicago Time. There are mixed thoughts about whether the USDA makes a reduction to yield in this report.
  • Energy markets are weaker with crude oil down 69 at $52.81/barrel.
  • The US$ is down 549 at 97.20 and the gold market is up 21-22 bucks at 1329 (just shy of the Feb 27 high of 1332).
  • The DJIA is down 100 at 24714, S&P is down 11 at 2744 and the NASDAQ is down 152 at 7300. 

Corn

Corn prices were mixed with uncertainty about corn planting progress. Gains were limited from fear of a possible trade war with Mexico after last week’s tariff plan that could take place next week.  The Western Corn Belt made some progress late last week and over the weekend while many areas in the Eastern Cron Belt struggle with more rain events or fields that are still too wet to get much planting done.   

  • Closes: July at $4.24 ½, down 2 ¾ cents, September at $5.33 ¾, down 2 ¼ cents and December at $4.41 ¾, down 2 cents.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 743 tmt, below trade estimates of 800 tmt -1.1 mmt.
  • Planting progress is expected to be 71% complete versus 58% last week.
  • Big crops expected to get bigger in Brazil on mostly favorable weather conditions.A private analyst pegs Brazil’s 2nd corn crop at 70.2 mmt compared to 68.5 mmt previously. Total exports were raised from 32.0 mmt to 33.0 mmt.
  • Spreads: N/U 9 ½ carry, U/Z 8 ¼ carry, Z/H 8 ¾ carry, N/Z 17 ½ carry, Z/N 13 ¾ carry, N0/Z0 38 ¼ inverse. 

Oilseeds

Soybean prices were supported from technical buying despite threats of tariffs on Mexican imports.  Unfavorable weather conditions the past few weeks have slowed row crop plantings with much uncertainty about corn acres getting switched from corn to beans, or how soon the farmer can get into the field to plant soybeans, especially in the Eastern Corn Belt. 

  • Closes: July at $8.79, up 1 ¼ cents, August at $8.85 ¾, up 1 ¼ cents and November at $9.06 ¼, up 1 ½ cents. The products were slightly weaker with meal down eighty cents and oil down twenty five points.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 499 tmt, mi-range of trade estimates at 400-650 tmt.
  • Planting progress is expected to be 42% complete versus 29% complete last week.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ¾ carry, Q/X 20 ½ carry, X/F 12 carry, X/N 33 ½ carry. 

Wheat

Wheat prices soared to higher levels on water and heat.  The Southern Plains area got hit with rain over the weekend, while Canada and Northwestern North Dakota registered some decent heat units.  The Black Sea region and Australia have been dry and are expected to stay that way for the next week. 

  • July closes: Mpls at $5.63 ½, up 11 ½ cents, KC at $4.87 ¼, up 14 ½ cents and Chicago at $5.19 ¾, up 16 ¾ cents.
  • SovEcon lowers their 2019/20 Russian wheat crop to 82.6 mmt because of dry weather conditions for the month of May. This compares to 83.4 mmt previously.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 593 tmt, near the high end of the trade estimates of 400-600 tmt.
  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 9 ¼ carry, U/Z 11 ½ carry, Kansas City N/U at 12 carry, N9/N0 at 62 carry and U9/U0 at 55 carry.