Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

A choppy day was seen in the grain markets, ahead of USDA’s crop progress/conditions report today and their updated US and world balance sheets tomorrow at 11 AM CDT. There are ideas that we will see reductions to both the corn acres and yield in tomorrow’s report. The US/ Chinese presidents make plans to meet at the end of the month as trade talks begin to surface. 

  • Egypt’s GASC tenders for optional origin soft milling wheat. Shipment is for July.
  • CHS Hedging is offering Energy Hedging classes June 19, Grain Hedging classes June 25 and Technical Trading classes on June 26.Go to our website at www.chshedging.com for registration and class details.
  • Energy markets are mostly lower with crude oil down 67 at $53.32/barrel.
  • The US$ is up 197 at 96.74, the gold market is down 14 bucks at 1328 and the CD$ is near unchanged at 0.7541.
  • The DJIA is up 131 at 26115, S&P up 14 at 2889 and the NASDAQ up 103 at 7845. 

Corn

Prices traded both sides on position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report and drier weather, which allowed for increased planting progress. Planting progress is expected to be near 83% complete through this past Sunday, compared to 67% complete last week. This week is thought to be the first one for assessing crop conditions with the average estimate at 54% G/E (35-68%). 

  • Closes: July at $4.15 ¾, unchanged, September at $4.24, down ¼ cent and December at $4.34 ½, up ¾ cent.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 851k tonnes, near the top end of trade estimates of 500-900 tmt.
  • The average trade estimate for this year’s corn crop is at 14.251 bb with an average yield of 172.4 bpa.
  • The average US carryout for 2019/20 is at 1.118 bb, down from 1.141 bb reported in May.
  • The average 2019/20 world carryout estimate is at 305 mmt versus 315 mmt reported in May.
  • Spreads: N/U 8 ¼ carry, U/Z 10 ½ carry, Z/H 8 ¾ carry, N20/Z20 37 ¾ inverse. 

Oilseeds

Prices opened lower on increased planting progress from favorable weather last week and over the weekend. Prices turned higher on decent weekly export inspections and position evening ahead of tomorrow’s USDA data. Planting progress is expected to be somewhere between 49-65% complete through Sunday. This compares to last week at 39% complete. 

  • Closes: July at $8.58 ½, up 2 ¼ cents, August at $8.65 ½, up 2 ¼ cents and November at $8.85 ¾, up 2 ¾ cents. The products were mixed with meal up a buck and oil unchanged.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 715k tonnes, over the top of trade estimates of 450-650 tmt.
  • The average trade estimate for this year’s soybean crop is at 4.123 bb with a yield of 49.0 bpa.
  • The average US carryout for 2019/20 is at 983 million bushels versus 970 million bushels reported on May.
  • The average 2019/20 world carryout is estimated at 113 mmt on par with what was reported in May.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ½ carry, Q/X 20 ½ carry, X/F 13 ¼ carry, X9/N0 42 ¾ carry.

 Wheat

Wheat prices rose on concerns of dryness in the Black Sea region.  More heat in store for Russia over the next couple of weeks. There is some concerns about quality in the winter wheat from too much rain in some areas. Crop conditions are expected to see spring wheat at 82% G/E and winter wheat at 63% G/E. 

  • July closes: Mpls at $5.68 ½, down ¼ cent, KC at $4.53, up 4 cents and Chicago at $5.07 ½, up 3 cents.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 465k tonnes, mid-range of trade estimates at 400-625 tmt.
  • The average trade estimated for All Wheat production is at 1.883 bb versus 1.897 bb in May. By class: HRW 765 mb versus 780 mb in May, SRW 261 mb versus 265 mb in May, White Winter Wheat 224 mb on par with May estimate, which leaves 633 mb left for Other Spring Wheat and HAD.
  • The average trade estimate for 2019/20 US carryout is at 1.118 versus 1.141 bb in May.
  • The average trade estimate for 2019/20 world carryout is at 290 mmt, down form 293 mmt reported in May.
  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 8 ½ carry, U/Z 10 ¼ carry, Kansas City N/U 13 carry (9 days left in the VSR calculation period.....looking to trigger storage rate from 16 ½ cents currently to 26 ½ cents with September.....KC U9/U0 at 81 ½ cent carry.