Afternoon Market Highlights
6/17/2019 2:10:16 PM
Trade talks between the US and China are taking the back seat to row crop planting progress. Weather forecasts look a bit on the cool and wet side for much of the US Midwest. The market is expected to begin preparing for next week’s month end, quarter end, June 1 Grain Stocks and updated acreage reports. The USDA made a sharp reduction to the corn yield in their June S&D report with expectations that they will significantly reduce their corn planted acres figure in their acreage report next week.
- Energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil down 74 at $51.75/barrel.
- The US$ is slightly lower at 97.55. The gold market is down 2-3 bucks at $1,339/ounce.
- Wall Street is stronger with the DJIA up 56 at 26146, S&P up 2 at 2892 and the NASDAQ up 63 at 7859.
- CHS Hedging is offering Energy Hedging classes June 19, Grain Hedging classes June 25 and Technical Trading classes on June 26.Go to our website at www.chshedging.com for registration and class details.
Corn prices rose overnight on more adverse weather in the Upper US Midwest. The corn market hit new contract highs in most months. Prices turned retreated midday on a bout of profit taking and technical selling. Corn plantings are estimated at 93% complete with many farmers not looking to plant anymore corn after last week.
- Closes: July at $4.54 ¾, up 1 ¾ cents, September at $4.61 ½, up 3 1/4 cents, December at $4.68 ½, up 5 cents.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 654 tmt.
- Crop conditions are expected to have improved a percent or two last week.Last week’s condition’s number was at 59% G/E.
- Brazil’s 2018/19 corn crop pegged at 101.2 mmt on par with the latest USDA estimated of 101.0 mmt.
- Spreads: N/U 6 ¾ carry, U/Z 7 carry, Z/H 4 ¾ carry, Z/N 5 ¾ carry, N20/Z20 54 ¼ inverse.
Soybean prices drew support overnight from adverse weather conditions over the weekend with more rains forecast for this week. The Canola market traded higher on dryness in the US and the Canadian Prairies. The crop has seen some moisture but much more is needed to get the crop off to a great start. July canola closed up $4.20 at $459.10 cwt.
- Closes: July at $9.12 ¾, up 16 cents, August at $9.19 ¼, up 16 ¼ cents, November at $9.39 ½, up 16 cents. The products were stronger with meal up 80 cents and oil up 53 points.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 675 tmt, a fair amount yet without China’s big purchases.
- NOPA soybean crush for May came in at 155.0 mb, below the average trade estimate of 162.5 mb. Oil stocks were reported at 1.581 billion pounds and meal exports came in at 617k tons.
- Spreads: N/Q 6 ½ carry, N/X 26 ½ carry, X/F 11 ½ carry, X20/N20 22 ¼ carry.
The wheat market traded higher on spillover strength from the row crops. Paris wheat prices drew strength from stronger US wheat prices. More rain is forecast this week for the Northern and Southern Plains. Winter wheat harvest is slow going from all the rain and saturated fields. Early reports of protein are said to be from 10-11% with early yield reports coming in anywhere from 30-50 bushels per acre.
- July closes: Mpls at $5.60 ¼, down 3 cents, KC at $4.74 ½, down 1 ¾ cents and Chicago at $5.39 ½, down 1 ¾ cents, Chicago at $5.39 ½, up 1 cent.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 375k tonnes.
- Spring wheat conditions are expected to be near unchanged with recent rain events across the Northern Plains. Last week conditions were reported at 81% G/E.
- Winter wheat harvest is estimated to be 14% complete.
- Australia lowers their production and exports because of recent dryness. Their crop is estimated at 21.2 mmt with exports at 11.0 mmt.This compares to the latest USDA forecast of 22.5 mmt production and 13.4 mmt for exports.
- Russian wheat prices rise on Black Sea weather conditions. Russian wheat areas have been dry for several weeks.
- Spreads: Mpls N/U 6 ½ carry, Kansas City N/U 12 ¼ carry, and Chicago N/U 3 ¼ carry.