Afternoon Market Highlights
6/19/2019 3:42:12 PM
“if market volatility persists it may also impact July options expiration and futures delivery cycles… please be diligent in managing these risks over the next couple weeks.”
The grain markets were on the defensive most of the day as the trade looks for more fresh positive news to take prices higher. Widespread rains are forecast for the Canadian Prairies and North Dakota this week. It looks like there will be a meeting between the US and China at next week’s Summit in Japan. The USCMA appears to have several issues to resolve before it gets signed. The energy markets are mostly positive this afternoon with crude oil holding above $54/barrel. The US$ is weaker while the gold and equity markets are stronger.
- The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged.
- The Cattle on Feed report for May is scheduled for release this Friday after the close.
- The USDA updated acreage and June 1 Grain Stocks reports are scheduled for Friday, June 28th at 11 AM CDT.
- July option expiration is this Friday.
- First Notice Day for July futures is next Friday, June 28 with all long positions reported after the close on June 27th.
Corn prices were on the defensive from lack of fresh supportive news. The corn market had a good run to the upside on worries that the crop would not get planted or that we would see a significant drop in planted acres from weeks of adverse weather across much of the US. The market sentiment has eased a bit with the USDA’s crop progress/conditions report that was released Monday afternoon (92% planted/59% G/E).
- Closes: July at $4.41, down 8 ¾ cents, September at $4.46 ½, down 9 ¼ cents and December at $4.53 ¼, down 9 ¾ cents.
- Weekly export sales estimates are from 300-900 tmt.
- Weekly ethanol production was down 15k barrels per day to 1,081,000 barrels per day.
- Argentina’s corn crop is said to be 59% harvested. The USDA raised their total production estimate form 49.0 mmt to 50.0 mmt in their June S&D report.
- Spreads: N/U 5 ¼ carry, U/Z 6 ¾ carry, Z/H 5 ¾ carry, N0/Z0 45 ¼ inverse.
The soybean market traded lower all day on fund selling. Some weather forecasts suggest a drier pattern developing which should help get the last of the soybeans planted. The market lacks fresh supportive news as it awaits next week’s USDA data release.
- Closes: July at $9.03 ¼, down 10 ¼ cents, August at $9.09 ½, down 10 ¾ cents and November at $9.28 ¾, down 11 ½ cents.The products closed mixed with meal down 5 bucks and oil a hair higher.
- Weekly export sales estimates: 200-800 tmt for beans, 100-400 tmt for meal and 5-25 tmt for soyoil.
- The canola market traded lower on forecasts for beneficial moisture across most of the Canadian Prairies. Price drew additional pressure form the ongoing trade spat between Canada and China. The July contract closed down 6 bucks at $454.60 cwt.
- Many Canadian farmers have said their crop will be in good shape, especially if the rains materialize like the forecast suggests.
- Spreads: N/Q 6 ¼ carry, Q/X 19 ¼ carry, X/F 12 ½ carry, X9/N0 27 ½ carry.
More of the same in the wheat market. The fund selling continues with some weather forecasts suggesting drier days ahead for the winter wheat harvest. US was not in the game for the Egyptian wheat tender. The Black Sea region won the whole lot. The Mpls July closed a couple cents off the day’s low of $5.39 ½. The 40-Day Ma in the July sits at $5.38. The KC July finished the day 5 ¾ cents above its 100-Day MA of $4.51.
- July closes: Mpls at $5.41 ½, down 10 ¾ cents, KC at $4.56 ¾, down 8 ½ cents and Chicago at $5.22 ¼, down 9 ¼ cents.
- EU wheat prices fall in sympathy with the US wheat market while awaiting results of the Egyptian tender.
- Egypt bought 290k tonnes of Russian/Romanian wheat for LH Jul shipment.
- Argentina’s wheat seeding is said to be 31% complete.Rain showers over the weekend have delayed planting in some areas.
- Weekly export sales estimates are from 200-500 tmt.
- Early HRW yield estimates are said to be running 30-50 bushels per acre with test weights from 56-60 pounds per bushel.
- Spreads: Mpls N/U 7 carry, U/Z 12 ¼ carry, Kansas City N/U 10 ½ carry, U9/U0 69 ¾ carry.