Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

  • First notice day for July grains and oilseeds futures is Friday, June 28th.

  • Quarterly grain stocks and the June acreage report will be released on Friday at 11:00 AM Central.

  • The quarterly hogs and pigs report will be released on Thursday, June 27th at 2:00 PM Central.

  • US$ index is 142 ticks higher, DJIA is down 132 points and NYMEX crude oil is down 20 cents.

 

Corn

Corn traded firm today after the USDA cut the crop condition rating to 56% G/E from last week’s 59%. Corn planting on the final progress report of the year was estimated at 96% complete. The crop remains behind in development.

  • CN gapped higher on the open last night but filled it by session close. Overall a light/two-sided session with nearby contracts firm and deferred contract months weaker.

  • Poll results for planted acres are coming in within a range of 82 to 89.8 million acres. Average guess is right around 86.7 million. USDA was 89.8 million on the June report.

  • Brazil safrinha harvest begins as Brazil continues to be aggressive in the global export market.

  • USDA says corn for silage can be planted on PP acres. That could change the type of harvest of what some normally planted acres were intended for.

  • Closes: July at $4.47 ½ up ¾; September at $4.53 up 1 ¼; December at $4.57 ½ up ¼ cent; March at $4.62 down a penny.

  • Spreads: N/U 5 ¼ cent carry; U/Z firmed a penny to 4 ½ cent carry; Z/H 4 ½ cent carry and Z/N only 6 ¼ cent carry.

 

Oilseeds

Soybeans traded higher overnight on delayed planting and subpar crop ratings, but was unable to hold the gains and succumbed to sell pressure. Planting progress was pegged at 85%, well below the 97% average. Beans are 54% G/E versus last year’s 73%.

  • Technically SN consolidates around its 200 day MA of $9.07 ¼, trading on both sides for the past seven sessions.

  • A portion of today’s weakness could stem from a lack of confidence that a meeting between Pres Trump and Xi will produce any meaningful dialogue or progress.

  • Average trade guess for the USDA planted acres report on Friday is 84.355 million, only slightly below the planting intentions report on March 29 of 84.6 million.

  • June 1 stocks are estimated at 1.861 bb, much above last year’s figure of 1.219 billion.

  • Closes: July at $9.03 ½ down 5 ¼; August at $9.08 ¾ down 6; November at $9.26 ½  down 6 ¼; January at $9.38 ¼ down 7 ¼.

  • Spreads: N/Q 5 ¼ cent carry; Q/X 17 ¾ cent carry; N/X 23 cent carry; X/F 11 ½ cent carry.

 

Wheat

The wheat markets traded mixed today after a firm overnight session as intermarket spread activity was a main modest feature. Black Sea wheat producers have experienced hot and dry conditions which appears poised to spread into other parts of Europe. The HRW harvest remains well behind normal as combines battle wet field conditions. Winter wheat conditions saw a seasonal deterioration.  

  • Overall US weather appears to have turned mostly favorable in many areas with welcomed precip in many portions of the spring wheat areas of North America and sunshine allows for drying conditions in previously wet areas.

  • The June 1 stocks report average carryout estimate is 1.1 billion bushels, vs 1.102bb on the June report.

  • The All wheat acres estimate is 45.654 million just below the number the USDA has been using. Spring wheat acres are expected to decline to 123.595 million from the 12.830 million March intentions. Lower acres in South Dakota are expected to be the bulk of the spring wheat acreage decline, while North Dakota could see a slight uptick from March intentions.

  • Stats Canada will update their acres tomorrow morning. All wheat acres expected around 25.7 million.

  • Closes: July Chicago at $5.35 ¾ down 2 ¼; July Kansas City at $4.65 ¼, down a fraction; July Minneapolis at $5.48 ½ up a nickel.

  • Spreads: Chicago N/U 4 ¼ cent carry; Kansas City N/U 11 ¾ cent carry; Minneapolis N/U 8 cent carry.