Afternoon Market Highlights
7/17/2019 3:04:14 PM
It was a quiet day in the grain markets. Winter wheat harvest moves along at a fairly decent pace. Outside markets/ influences were quiet. Lack of fresh news leaves the focus on weather updates. Mostly hot/wet weather is expected for the next few days with a cooler/drier pattern to develop next week. The next USDA crop production/supply & demand report is not scheduled for release until August 12 at 11 am CDT.
- Average trade estimates for Friday’s Cattle on Feed report: On Feed July 1 at 101.9% (100.9-103.2), June placements at 98.2% (93.2-105.7) and June marketings at 97.0% (95.8-98.3). Report is scheduled for 2 PM CDT.
- The annual Wheat Quality spring wheat tour kicks off next week, with routes heading from Fargo to Bismarck on Tuesday, Bismarck to Devils Lake on Wednesday and Devils Lake to Fargo on Thursday for a final wrap-up of the 3-day tour.
- The energy markets are mostly lower with crude oil trading a buck lower at $56.61/barrel.
- US$ down 153 at 97.24, gold up $14 at $1,425 and the CD$ up 0.00012 at 0.76725.
- Wall Street is weaker with the DJIA down 62 at 27273, S&P down 13 at 2993 and the NASDAQ down 13 at 8209.
Corn prices traded both sides on weather conditions. This week’s heat was thought to have possibly caused damage to the crop, while next week’s cooler/drier conditions are expected to be beneficial to the corn crop.
- Closes: September at $4.36, up ¾ cent, December at $4.41 ½, up ¼ cent and July at $4.54 ¾, down ¼ cent.
- CIF premiums were mostly unchanged.
- September corn traded above its 20-Day MA of $4.40 but failed to hold at or above that level by the close. The December corn settled just below its 40-Day MA of $4.42 ¾.
- Weekly ethanol production was reported at 1,066,000 barrels per day, an increase of 19k barrels per day.
- The average trade estimate for tomorrow’s weekly export sales is 350-800 tmt.
- Spreads: U/Z 5 ¼ carry, Z/H 7 ¼ carry, N/Z ¼ carry, Z/N 13 ½ carry, N0/Z0 35 ¼ inverse.
The soy complex closed lower on forecasts for a cooler weather pattern to develop next week. Pressure also stemmed from technical selling. Hopes are that the soybean crop will get a reprieve from this week’s hot/wet conditions to that of cool and dry.
- Closes: August at $8.82 ½, down 5 ¼ cents, November at $9.00 ½, down 5 ½ cents and July at $9.39 ½, down 5 cents. The products were softer with meal down nearly a buck and oil down 31 points.
- The August traded above its 40-Day MA of $8.85 ¾ but was not able to stay at that level. The November contract closed 5 cents below its 40-Day MA.
- CIF premiums were 2 cents weaker for J/A and unchanged for S/O/N.
- Average trade estimate for weekly export sales: 100-700 tmt for beans, 50-300 tmt for meal and 5-50 tmt for soyoil.
- The canola market traded lower on weakness in the US soyoil market and poor demand.
- Spreads: Q/X 18 carry, X/F 12 ½ carry, X/N 39 carry.
The wheat market closed lower on harvest pressure in the winter wheat areas. Winter wheat is said to be getting sold off the combine while spring wheat being sold as the farmer needs to pay bills or make space for the upcoming harvest. Mpls sits at an 87-cent premium over KC.
- September closes: Mpls at $5.27 ¾, down 2 ½ cents, KC at $4.41, down 5 ¼ cents and Chicago at $5.05 ½, down 2 cents.
- Egypt’s GASC bought one cargo (60K) of wheat from Russia.
- Japan seeks 51k tonnes of Canadian and Australian wheat in their weekly food tender. The US was not included in this week’s mix.
- The average trade estimate for weekly export sales is 200-400 tmt.
- Spreads: Mpls U/Z 13 carry, Z/H 14 ¾ carry, Kansas City U/Z 20 ¾ carry, U/U 69 carry.