Afternoon Market Highlights
8/1/2019 3:53:25 PM
Big down day across the board on lack of fresh supportive news. Grains, energies and equity markets all got thumped today. Grains were lower as funds turned sellers on non-threatening weather for the Midwest and lack of positive progress from this week’s talks with China.
- More tariffs on $300 billion Chines goods....10% effective September 1st on not trade deal between the US and China.
- Farmfest begins next week. CHS Hedging will have a booth at the event (#316). Come on down and see what’s going on.
- Energy markets are with crude oil down hard ($4) at $54.51/barrel.
- Wall Street turned lower with the DJIA down 235 at 26629, S&P down 25 at 2958 and the NASDAQ down 40 at 8135.
Corn prices tried to bounce back but turned lower on weakness in the soybeans. Favorable weather conditions provided additional pressure. It feels like funds are pulling out and sitting on the sidelines in anticipation of what the USDA might report on August 12th. Increased farmer selling was noted with some farmers just throwing in the towel.
- Closes: September at $3.92 ¾, down 7 ½ cents, December at $4.02 ½, down 7 ½ cents and July at $4.24 ½, down 5 ¾ cents. Sep/Dec corn have lost 21-22 cents so far this week.
- The gap in the Sep is from $3.69 ½ to $3.66 ½ and the gap in the Dec is from $3.80-$3.77 ½.
- A private analyst estimate for the final 2019 corn yield came in at 167.4 with total production at 13.992 billion bushels.
- Gulf premiums were mostly steady. Ethanol bids are backing off and margins are said to be improving, although was hearing that margins were still negative as of this morning.
- Weekly export sales were reported at 273 tmt versus traded estimates ranging from 300-850 tmt.
- Spreads: U/Z 9 ½ carry, Z/H 10 ¾ carry, Z/N 21 ¾ carry, N0/Z0 16 ¾ inverse (not thinking there’s concern for next year any longer).
The soybean market got spanked today on lack of fresh news, President Trump’s announcement to put more tariffs on Chines goods in September and fund selling. The cooler temps are expected to give the bean crop relief and viewed as beneficial for crop development.
- Closes: November at $8.65 ¼, don 16 ¼ cents, July at $9.15 ¼, down 16 ½ cents and red Nov at $9.28, down 12 ¼ cents. The products were lower with meal down five bucks and oil down 7 points.
- Weekly export sales were reported at 449 tmt compared to trade estimates of 100-700 tmt. China’s small purchase for new crop was no where near enough to offset the defensive stance.
- A private analyst pegs the 2019 final soybean yield at 47.2 with total production at 3.743 billion bushels.
- Grain world tour through Canada pegs the canola yield at 39.9 with total production at 19.0 mmt.
- Spreads: X/F 13 ½ carry, F/K 24 ¾ carry, X/N 49 ¾ carry.
Wheat prices opened lower on plentiful supplies, technical selling in Chicago and lack of decent demand. Prices saw additional pressure form weakness in the row crops. Lots of wheat moving form the farm to the elevator (viewed as the harvest before the harvest).
- September closes: Mpls at $5.18 ½, down 1 cent, KC at $4.17 ¾, down 5 cents and Chicago at $4.75 ¾, down 11 ½ cents.
- Weekly export sales were reported at 383 tmt versus trade estimates of 300-600 tmt.
- Hearing that combines might get rolling in the driest areas of spring wheat the weekend.
- Grain World crop tour though Canada pegged the wheat crop at 26.9 mmt with a 52.1 yield.The durum crop was pegged at 5.6 mmt with a 40.8 yield.
- Spreads: Mpls U/Z 13 ½ carry, Z/H 14 ½ carry, Kansas City U/Z 17 ½ cents, U/U 64 ½ cents. Mpls U is at a buck premium over KC U.