Afternoon Market Highlights
8/26/2019 2:09:34 PM
The grain markets saw choppy trade with soybeans higher on bargain buying and the potential for easing US/Chinese trade tensions, which could hopefully lead to a resolution. This week’s weather is expected to be beneficial for the row crops as they can use a bit more moisture. Most areas could also use some warmer temperatures. The “Voice of the Tomb” says to sell wheat on September 10th.
- First Notice Day for September futures is Friday, with all longs to be reported after the close on Thursday. The last trading day for September futures is Friday, September 13th.
- Check your open positions for any orders you may not want to get filled.
- The energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil trading down 41 cents at $53.76/barrel.
- The US$ traded stronger, up 442 at 98.03, the gold market was 1-2 bucks higher at $1,529 and the CD$ was stronger, up 0.00165 at 0.75415.
- DJIA up 177 at 25806, S&P up 12-13 at 2868 and the NASDAQ up 73-74 at 7825.
- An updated StatsCan Crop report is scheduled for Wednesday morning sometime.
- The next monthly USDA report is scheduled for Thursday, September 12th at 11 AM CDT.
The corn market traded both side with support coming from hopes of improving demand and renewed buying interest. Pressure in the corn market stemmed from weather forecasts, suggesting more rain this week across parts of the US Midwest. Rain makes grain but thoughts are that the crop is in much need of some extended heat units as well. The Crop tour results were thought to have provided additional support to the corn market.
- Closes: September at $3.58 ½, down 1 ¼ cent, December at $3.68 ¼, up ½ cent, July at $3.95 ¾, up ½ cent and red Dec at $4.04 ½, up ¼ cent.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 639k tonnes, in-line with trade estimates from 500-800 tmt.
- Corp conditions are estimated at 57% G/E (55-58%), back to where they were two weeks ago.
- Spreads: U/Z 9 ½ carry (8 ½-10), Z/H 12 carry, H/K 8 ½ carry, Z/N 27 ¾ carry, Z/Z 36 ¾ carry.
The soybean complex traded higher on crop concerns and renewed buying interest after last week’s loss and a drop to $8.55 in the November beans overnight. The next low in the November beans is at $8.54 ½ back on August 5th. This week’s expected rain events are though to be beneficial to the developing soybean crop. The crop is said to be needing some warmer temperature to get it to full maturity.
- Closes: November at $8.67 ¼, up 10 ¾ cents, January at $8.80 ½, up 9 ¼ cents, July at $9.14 ¾, up 6 ½ cents and red November at $9.31, up 6 ¾ cents. The products were mixed with meal up 34 bucks and oil down 1 point (supported from borrowed strength in related oil markets).
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 962k tonnes, near the top end of trade estimates ranging from 700 tmt- 1.1 mmt.
- The canola market opened higher in sympathy with other oilseeds such as Malaysian and European oilseeds markets. The market closed lower on beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairies and increased farmer sales.
- The average trade estimate for the Canadian canola crop is at 18.9 mmt versus 20.3 mmt last year.
- Crop conditions are estimated at 54% G/E up 1% (52%-55%) from last week’s 53% G/E and unchanged from 2 weeks ago.
- Spreads: U/X 13 ½ carry, X/F 13 ¼ carry, F/K 23 ¾ carry, X/N 47 ¾ carry.
The wheat market traded lower on ample world supplies and a stronger US$, despite strength in the row crops. Some areas made great strides in harvesting spring wheat last week, while other areas barely got started. Egypt’s GACS is looking to purchase optional origin wheat for FH Oct shipment.
- September closes: Mpls at $4.92 ¾, down 6 cents, KC at $3.88 ¼, down 3 ¼ cents and Chicago at $4.73, down 2 ¼ cents.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 493k tonnes, mid-range of trade estimates from 400-600 tmt.
- South Korea bought 30k tonnes of US wheat for LH Nov-LH Dec shipment.
- Winter wheat harvest is basically done with this week’s estimates at 97% complete versus 93% the week previous.
- Spring wheat harvest is estimated at 29% versus 16% last week.Conditions are expected to be unchanged at 70% G/E.
- Spreads: Mpls U/Z widened out to a 19-cent carry, Z/H 13 ½ carry, U/U 58 ¼ carry.......Kansas City U/Z 12 ¾ carry, U/U 63 carry......Chicago U/Z 2 carry. KC Sep gained on Mpls Sep with Mpls at a 103 ¼ premium to KC.