Afternoon Market Highlights
9/23/2019 2:48:13 PM
The grain markets traded mostly higher on adverse weather conditions, technicals and more Chinese soybean business off the PNW for O/N/D. More cool/wet weather conditions across much of the Us Midwest seems to be enough to warrant a bit of risk premium in soybeans and the spring wheat markets.
- The energy markets are mostly stronger with crude oil up 41 at $58.49/barrel.
- The US$ up 117 at 98.63, the gold market is up 15 bucks at $1,523/ounce and the CD$ is steady at 0.75475.
- DJIA up 60 at 27001, S&P up 10 at 3001 and the NASDAQ up 14 at 8132.
- Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report due out this Friday.
- Small Grains Summary and Sep 1 Grain Stocks reports are scheduled for release Monday, September 30th at 11 AM CDT.
- The next USDA S&D report is scheduled for October 10th at 11 AM CDT.
Corn prices were higher on rain soaked fields, which could slow harvest activities in some areas. There are concerns of possibly too much rain in parts of the Upper Midwest, which could hamper the quality of this year’s corn crop. Gains were limited on technicals, with the December failing to reach its 40-Day MA of $3.80 ¼. The corn market traded in a 3-cent range from Dec-May. There is a gap left in the Dec 19 from $3.92 ¾-$3.88 from back on August 13th.
- Closes: Dec at $3.73 ¼, up 2 ½ cents, July at $3.97 ¾, up 2 ½ cents, September at $3.98 ¾, up 2 cents and red Dec at $4.03 ½, up 1 ½ cents.
- Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 233 tmt. Trade estimates were 400-700 tmt.
- Crop conditions are expected to be unchanged from last week at 55% G/E. Harvest progress is estimated at 9% complete. This compares to 4% complete last week.
- Spreads: Z/H narrowed into a 10 ¾-cent carry, the Z/N finished unchanged at a 24 ½-cent carry, and the Z/Z narrowed in a penny to a 30 ¾-cent carry.
Soybean prices took to higher ground (but failed to trade at or above $9) on continued wet/cool weather conditions and more bean purchases by private Chinese importers. The low in the November contract hit at $8.80 ¾ last Friday and again today. Crop quality concerns begin to take place ahead of the bulk of the soybean harvest. Some of the later planted crop may not get a chance to reach maturity.
- Closes: November at $8.92 ½, up 9 ¾ cents, January at $9.06, up 9 ½ cents, July at $9.35, up 6 ¼ cents and red November at $9.44 ½, up 4 cents.
- Weekly export inspections were decent at 923 tmt. Traded estimates ranged from 600-900 tmt.
- Crop conditions are expected to be unchanged at 54% G/E with no harvest progress reported.
- China was said to have purchased 10 cargoes of US beans over the next three months.
- Spreads: The X/F at a 13 ½ -cent carry, the F/K at a 20 ¼-cent carry (1 ¾ cents narrower) and the X/N at a $42 ¼-cent carry (3 ¾ cents narrower).
Wheat prices were mixed with strength in the spring wheat market stemming from continued cool wet weather conditions in the Northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies. Mpls Dec has climbed over 50 cents since September 3rd. The durum and barley crops are suffering from adverse weather conditions as well. The 100-Day MA in Mpls Dec sits at $5.41, 3 ¾ cents above today’s close. KC and Chicago traded lower on technicals with the Chicago Dec closing below its 10-Day MA of $4.84 ¼, and the KC Dec closing at its 10-Day Ma of $4.05.
- December closes: Mpls up another 13 cents at $5.37 ¼, KC down 2 cents at $4.05 ½, and Chicago down 1 ¼ cents at $4.83.
- The Z/H variable storage rate sits at 46.5% of full carry in KC and 31 ¼ % of full carry in Chicago.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 476 tmt versus trade estimates ranging from 300-600 tmt.
- Spring wheat harvest is expected to be at 83% complete versus 76% complete last week. Harvest was going at a pretty rapid pace until last Friday and Saturday where many areas got several inches of rain, high winds along with some hail noted.
- Russian wheat export prices turn higher on strength in their currency, US wheat markets and lack of farmer selling.
- Winter wheat plantings are estimated at 18% versus 8% last week.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H snuck into an 11-cent carry and the Z/Z closed at a 51 ¾-cent carry versus 56 ½ cent previously. The Kansas City Z/H closed at a 13-cent carry and the Z/Z closed at a 58-cent carry.
- Mpls gained on KC with the Mpls Z at a $1.31 ½ cent premium over KC Dec ($1.16 ¾ previously).