Afternoon Market Highlights
9/25/2019 4:31:40 PM
Weather and the US/Chinese trade war remain center stage as forecasts shift from no threat of frost to increased chances for frost in early October and ongoing tensions between the US and China. The trade deal between Japan and the US and the USMCA (US, Canada, Mexico trade agreement) are still a work in progress.
- Sep 30 Small Grains Summary and Sep 1 Grain Stocks reports are scheduled for next Monday at 11 AM CDT.
- The energy markets were mostly lower with crude oil down 63 cents at $56.66/barrel.
- The US$ traded much higher, up 680 at 99.01, the gold market got thumped, down 28-29 bucks at $1,504/ounce and the CD$ steady at 0.7552.
- DJIA up 162 at 26970, S&P up 15 at 2986 and the NASAQ up 83 at 8077.
The corn market traded mixed with pressure coming from technical selling and ideas that a frost may not damage the corn crop all that much. Weekly ethanol production saw a sharp drop this week.
- Closes: December at $3.74 ¼, down ½ cent, July at $3.98 ½, up ½ cent, September at $3.99 ½, up ¾ cent and red Dec at $4.04 ¾, up 1 ¼ cents.
- The average trade estimate for weekly export sales is at 600 tmt-1.1 mmt.
- Weekly ethanol production saw a big drop over the past week.Total weekly production was down 60K, at 943k barrels per day. Stocks were down 700k barrels to 22.5 million barrels.
- The average trade estimate for next week’s stocks report is at 2.428 bb (2.298-2.500) with last June at 5.202 and last Sep a t 2.390 bb.
- Spreads: Z/H 11 ¼ carry, Z/N 24 ½ carry, Z/Z 30 carry.
The soybean market took a step back today on worries that this week’s Chinese bean purchases could be it for a while, while the US and China work toward a trade war resolution. Non-threatening weather conditions across parts of the US Midwest, the next couple of days, could allow for some of the early bean harvest to get underway. The bulk of the soybean crop looks to be a couple of weeks away yet.
- Closes: November at $8.69 ¼, down 5 cents, January at $9.03 ¼, down 4 ½ cents, July at $9.33 ½, down 3 cents and red Nov at $9.42 ½, down 2 ¾ cents.
- The average trade estimate for tomorrow’s weekly export sales is at 800 tmt - 1.3 mmt for beans, 200-550 tmt for meal and 5-35 tmt for soyoil.
- Soybean stocks for next week’s stocks report are estimated at 0.982 mb (0.940-1.035), with last June at 1.790 and last Sep at 0.438 mb.
- The average trade estimate for the 2018/19 US soybean production is at 4.528 bb (4.412-4.555) with USDA last at 4.54 bb.
- Spreads: X/F 14 carry, F/K 21 ¾ carry, X/N 44 carry.
And the wheat market keeps on trucking to higher levels on concerns of tightening supplies of good quality protein spring wheat. Egypt bought a sizable jag of optional origin wheat for LH Oct/FH Nov. KC and Chicago were pressured from technical selling and planting progress.
- December closes: Mpls $5.54 ½, up 9 ¾ cents, KC at $4.04, down 1 cent and Chicago at $4.77 ¼, down 4 ½ cents.
- Average trade estimate for weekly export sales is at 200-500 tmt.
- Egypt’s GASC bought 300k tonnes of Russian and French wheat (240k Russian/60k French).
- Average trade estimates for the Sep 1 Grain Stocks report is at 2.318 bb (2.225-2.448) with last June at 1.072 and last Sep at 2.390 bb.
- Small Grains production estimates: All wheat at 1.968 bb (1.940-2.011) and 1.980 bb last year, All winter at 1.327 bb (1.310-1.355) and 1.326 bb last year.
- By class estimates: HRW at 0.841 mb (0.822-0.860) and 0.840 last year, SRW at 0.256 mb (0.250-0.265) and 0.256 mb last year, White at 0.229 mb (0.213-0.260) and 0.229 mb last year, Other Spring at 0.585 mb (0.545-0.602) and 0.597 mb last year and HAD at 0.056 mb (0.050-0.058) and 0.057 mb last year.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 11 ½ carry, Z/Z 45 carry, Kansas City Z/H 13 carry, Z/Z 61 carry.Mpls continues to gain on KC with a $1.50 premium over KC in the Dec contract.