Afternoon Market Highlights
9/27/2019 3:12:07 PM
The markets were mostly on the defensive today, ahead of the weekend and next Monday’s USDA data release. The weather forecast for much of the Upper Midwest suggests another weekend of cool/wet weather. Next week’s weather for much of the Northern Plains is expected to be cool as well.
- The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report out after the close today showed: all hogs as of Sept 1 at 103%, hogs kept for breeding at 102% and hogs kept for marketing at 104%. Report is said to be viewed as mostly neutral for the hog market on Monday.
- Sep 1 Grain Stocks and the Small Grains Summary reports are scheduled for release on Monday at 11 AM Chicago Time.
- Then we turn around and get hit with the USDA’s updated monthly S&D report on October 10th at 11 AM Chicago Time.
- The average trade estimates for Tuesday’s USDA Fats and Oils report: 179.0 million soybeans crushed (178.2-180.0), 1.974 billion pounds for stocks of soyoil (1.955-2.000).
- The energy markets are mostly lower with crude oil trading down 66 cents at $55.79/barrel.
- US$ down 34 at 99.09, the gold market is down 12-13 bucks at $1,499 and the CD$ is up a freckle at 0.75625.
- DJIA down 104 at 26787, S&P down 16 at 2963, NASDAQ down 97 at 7933.
Corn prices drifted lower on technical selling, in modest volume ahead of the weekend and the USDA’s grain stocks report on Monday. Next week’s forecast for cooler weather (and a possible frost mid-week), was thought to not have much of an affect on the corn crop.
- Closes: December at $3.71 ½, down 1 cent, July at $3.96 ½, down 1 cent, September at $3.98 ¼, red Dec at $4.03, down 1 ¼ cents.
- Brazil’s corn shipments to the US begin their first trek this week with 60k tonnes headed to US ports.
- Corn harvest is expected to continue as weather allows. Forecasts suggest a few hot days coming next week for parts of the ECB.
- Spreads: Z/H 12 ¼ carry, Z/N 25 ¼ carry, Z/Z 31 ½ carry.
Soybean prices were lower on position squaring ahead of the USDA stocks report on Monday morning. Harvest activity could be hampered by moisture over the weekend, whether it be clear and wet or white and wet. China is expected to be mostly on holiday next week, resulting in minimal soybean sales to them for the next several days.
- Closes: November at $8.83, down 5 ½ cents, January at $8.97 ½, down 5 ¼ cents, July at $9.29 ½, down 4 ¾ cents and red November at $9.40 ½, down 3 ½ cents. The products were lower with meal off almost a buck and oil down 39 points.
- One more jag of US beans to China was announced this morning. The USDA announced the sale of 126k tonnes for the 2019/20 marketing year.
- Spreads: X/F 14 ½ carry, F/K 23 carry and X/N 46 ½ carry.
The wheat market stopped to take a breath ahead of next week’s Small Grains Summary. The Chicago market caught a bid on a bout of technical buying in modest volume. The KC market was on the defensive as the winter wheat crop continues to get planted in fields with decent moisture. Next week’s USDA data is not expected to show a big difference, in this year’s winter wheat and durum production, then what was though back in August. Ideas are that the spring wheat crop could see a slight haircut.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.47, down 1 ¾ cents for the day but up 22 ¾ cents for the week, KC at $4.07, down 1 ¼ cents and Chicago a t $4.87 ¼, up 3 cents.
- Argentina and Australia struggle with dryness while the Canadian Prairies suffer from too much moisture at harvest time.For the most part, the spring wheat guys have moved on, and are focusing on their soybeans harvest.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 13 ¼ carry, Z/Z 48 carry, Kansas City Z/H 13 carry, Z/Z 59 ¾ carry.
- Through September 24th, the funds are said to be holding an estimated net short position of 20k contracts in Mpls, 36k contracts in KC and 19k contracts in Chicago.