Afternoon Market Highlights
10/4/2019 1:53:14 PM
Quiet day in the markets ahead of what is expected to be a cool/wet weekend. The USDA is expected to release their updated row crop harvest numbers, along with winter wheat planting progress. The focus next week is expected to be on position squaring ahead of Thursday’s USDA S&D report at 11 AM CDT.
- President Trump makes a pledge to increase the use of biofuels beginning after the first of the year.
- Energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil trading up 25 cents at $52.69/barrel.
- The US$ traded both sides but is currently down 48 at 98.81, the gold market is down 4 bucks at 1506 and the CD$ is about steady at 75145.
- DJIA is up 300 at 26501, S&P up 30 at 2942 and the NASDAQ up 91 t 7964.
Corn prices drifted lower (in modest volume) on a bout of profit taking ahead of the weekend and Monday’s harvest progress numbers. Prices drew additional pressure from lack of demand for US corn, despite President Trumps push for increased use of biofuels.
- Closes: December at $3.84 ½, down 4 cents, July t $4.05 ¾, down 2 ¾ cents, September at $4.00 ½, down 1 ½ cents, red Dec at $4.04 ¼, down 1 ¼ cents.
- Gulf premiums were 2-3 cents firmer.
- IEG Vantage pegs this year’s corn production at 13.695 billion bushels, using a yield of 167.5 bushels per acre. Their previous estimate was at 13.909/169.6 respectively.
- Hearing reports from the country that the corn is pretty much dented, with moisture levels running between 30 & 40%.
- Spreads: Z/H 12 ¼ carry, Z/N 21 ¼ carry, Z/Z 20 carry.
Soybean prices traded higher on crop woes with the continued harvest delays from too much moisture around the Upper Midwest. Early yield numbers are a bit disappointing and there are concerns that the later planted crop will have smaller yields than the early crop. The canola crop continues to rise for many of the same reasons as the US soybean crop.
- Closes: November at $9.16 ½, up 4 ½ cents, January at $9.30 ¼, up 4 ¼ cents, July at $9.58 ½, up 3 ½ cents and red November at $9.62 ½, up 1 ¾ cents.
- Gulf premiums were mostly steady after yesterday’s sharp weakness.
- IEG Vantage pegs this year’s soybean production at 3.513 billion bushels, using a yield of 46.5 bushels per acre. Their previous estimate was 3.671/48.4 respectively.
- Russia looks to muscle in on the Chinese soybean business stating that they are making plans to sell all the soybeans they can muster up, to China.The debate is whether they can provide China with anything close to the amount of beans they would need.
- Spreads: X/F 14 carry, F/K 19 ¾ carry, X/N 42 carry.
The wheat market traded higher on technicals, with a late round of short covering ahead of the weekend, noted in Chicago. Mpls continues to garner strength from concerns of tight good quality protein spring wheat. KC saw support from light technical buying.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.36, up 6 ½ cents, KC at $4.05 ¾, unchanged, Chicago at $4.90 ½, up 1 ¾ cents.
- Argentina Australia wheat country suffer from extended dryness.
- Japan was not in the market this week for the routine food tender.
- The US/Japan trade agreement is expected to begin after the first of the year.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 13 ½ carry (keep a watch on this one, consider rolling shorts if it looks like we are headed for inside of 10 cents) .......Kansas City Z/H 14 ½ cents.
- The Mpls Dec sits at a $1.31 premium over the Kansas City Dec.