Afternoon Market Highlights
10/21/2019 2:24:54 PM
The Ag markets struggled, trading rangebound ahead of this afternoon’s harvest progress report. China’s buying spree seems to have subsided for the moment, with a few cargoes being purchased from SA rather than the US. Trade relations between the US and China are thought to be positive, although there was little news on that front today. The two parties are scheduled to meet at the end of the month with thoughts of something positive coming from them. A signing of the “Phase I” agreement is hoped to get signed at the Chili Summit Mid-November if not sooner. The market’s main focus seems to be on the weather and the US harvest with uncertainty about how much will actually be able to get harvested.
- The next USDA S&D report is scheduled for November 8 at 11 AM Chicago Time. The USDA is expected to reflected potential crop/yield losses for corn/ beans and spring wheat in the November report.
- CHS Hedging is offering an “Introduction to Technical Trading” class on January 10th and “Energy Hedging I & II” classes on January 23rd at the Inver Grove Heights office.Check the website for registration and agenda at www.chshedging.com.
- The energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil down 38 cents at $53.40/barrel.
- The US$ bounced off its lows and into positive territory by this afternoon, up 4 at 97.32, the gold market is of 7-8 bucks at $1,482/ounce and the CD$ is 0.00225 higher at 0.7649.
- DJIA up 43 at 26814, S&P up 16 at 3004 at the NASDAQ up 70 at 8159.
Corn prices were lower on spillover weakness in the wheat market. The bulk of the corn harvest is expected to be a few weeks away yet as the crop is either not mature yet or dried down enough to take. Many fields in the Dakotas are still very wet and rain showers continue to develop over parts of the ECB. There is areal concern about whether the farmer can get all the crops out of the fields before next spring.
- Closes: December at $3.87 ¼, down 3 ¾ cents, July at $4.13, down 2 ¼ cents, September at $4.04 ¾, down 1 ¾ cents and red December at $4.09, down 1 ¼ cents.
- Gulf premiums were mostly unchanged.
- Weekly export inspections at 532 tmt came in mid-range of the trade estimates.
- Harvest progress is expected to be 34% complete with 54% of the crop rated G/E.
- Spreads: Z/H 12 ½ carry, H/K 7 carry, Z/N 25 ½ carry, Z/Z 21 ¾ carry, N0/Z0 3 ¾ cent inverse.
The soybean market appears rangebound ahead of this afternoon’s harvest progress report. Good harvest weekend with yield reports coming in at or above expectations. Hopes remain for China to buy additional good-will beans this week but have not seen any confirmation of that so far. South America weather looks to be improving with forecasts suggesting a few more chances for rain in parts of Brazil this past weekend and for this week.
- Closes: November at$9.33 ¼, down ¾ cent, January at $9.46 ¾, down ¾ cent, July at $9.75 ½, down ½ cent, red November at $9.73 ¼, up ½ cent. The products were mixed with meal down 80 cents and oil up 12 points.
- Gulf premiums were 1 cent weaker for November. PNW bids were last at 90/100.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 1.3 mmt, near the top end of the trade estimates.
- The canola market closed lower with the November down$ 2.40 at $451.30.
- Minnesota made decent progress on soybean harvest over the weekend.Rain showed up for much of the area around Sunday night and is expected to continue for the next day or so.Temperatures are expected to remain on the cooler side.
- Much of North Dakota is still very wet, with little progress made last week.
- Harvest progress is expected to come in around 42% complete with 53% of the crop rated G/E.
- Spreads: X/F 13 ¾ carry, F/K 20 ½ carry, X/N 42 ½ carry.
Wheat prices were on the defensive from a bout of profit taking after last week’s rally in Chicago wheat. There are still concerns of significant crop losses in Australia and Argentina.
- December closes: Mpls $5.37 ¾, down 6 ¾ cents, KC at $4.25 ¾, down 8 cents and Chicago at $5.23 ½, down 8 ¾ cents.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 565 tmt, near the upper end of the trade estimates. By class breakdown: 189 HRS, 206 HRW, 27 SRW, 19 Hard White, 124 Soft White.
- Winter wheat planting progress is expected to be 77% complete with the spring wheat harvest coming to an end at 97% complete.
- Paris milling wheat traded lower on weakness in the US wheat market and a wait and see attitude on the outcome of this week’s Algerian tender.
- Algeria is in the market or a jag of optional origin wheat. Ideas are that France and Argentina will get the business.
- Saudi Arabia’s SAGO was said to have purchased 605k tonnes of wheat. EU regions are thought to make up the lion’s share of the business.
- Exporters of Russian wheat are said to be reluctant to make offers in the Saudi Arabian purchase because Russian wheat may not make the quality specs that Saudi Arabia is looking for.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 13 ½ carry, Z/Z 44 ½ cent carry, Kansas City Z/H 12 ¾ carry, Z/Z 52 ¼ carry.