Afternoon Market Highlights
10/23/2019 3:18:14 PM
The grain markets were quiet with many farmers getting back out in the fields and limited interest in selling grain. Weather conditions look dry for the next week or so for much of the Midwest. Temperatures look to get pretty chilly over the next week or two (don’t get caught without your mittens). Next week is month end and the week after that is the USDA’s monthly S&D report.
- Weekly export sales report is due out tomorrow morning.
- November options expire on Friday and First Notice Day for November futures is October 31st with all long positions being reported after the close on the 30th.
- The USDA is scheduled to release their updated US and world balance sheets on November 8th at 11 AM Chicago Time.
- The energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil bouncing up over a dollar at $55.84/barrel (resistance is seen at the 200-Day MA of $57 and again at $60).
- The US$ tipped back, trading down 0.52 at 97.47, the gold market is 7-8 stronger at $1,490/ounce and the CD$ is up 0.0012 at 0.76525.
- DJIA up 46 at 26834, S&P up 11 at 3005 and the NASDAQ up 15 at 8119.
The corn market traded lower on improving weather conditions and increased harvest activity. Prices drew additional pressure from slowed demand for US corn. The next couple of weeks look to be smooth sailing for accelerating corn harvest. The corn crop is said to be slow to dry down, which may limit harvest progress.
- Closes: December at $3.87 ¾, down ¼ cent, July at $4.12, down 1 cent, September at $4.04 ¾, down ¼ cent and red December at $4.09 ¼, down ¼ cent.
- CIF premiums were unchanged for October and 1-cent weaker for November.
- Weekly ethanol production was reported at 996k barrels per day, up 25k barrels per day. Ethanol stocks were down 700k barrels to 21.4 million barrels.
- The average trade estimate for weekly export sales is 450-850 tmt.
- Spreads: Z/H 11 ½ carry, H/K 6 ¾ carry, Z/N 24 carry, Z/Z 20 ¾ carry, N0/Z0 3 inverse.
The soybean market opened lower on the absence of Chinese purchase announcements and improving weather and harvest activity. Prices did manage to claw their way back to positive territory but failed to close there.
- Closes: November at $9.33 ¾, down ¼ cent, January at $9.48 ¼, unchanged, July at $9.76 ½, down ¼ cent, red November at $9.72 ¼, down 1 cent.
- CIF premiums were 2 cents firmer for October and 2-3 cents firmer for November.
- We sold 128k tonnes of beans to an unknown destination for the 2019/20 marketing year.
- Average trade estimates for weekly export sales: 800-1.6 mmt for beans, 100-300 tmt for meal and 0-25 tmt for soyoil.
- Spreads: X/F 14 ½ carry, F/K 19 ½ carry, X/H 25 ¾ carry, X/N 42 ¼ carry.
The wheat market saw a modest rebound after the past few days of technical selling and profit taking. Prices drew support from ongoing dryness in Australia and Argentina and increased demand for wheat.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.42 ½, up 3 ¼ cents, KC at $4.23 ½, up 2 ¼ cents, Chicago at $5.20 ¾, up 2 ¾ cents.
- Saudi Arabia looks at possibly purchasing a Russian grain terminal, along with possibly investing in farmland in Russia.
- Algeria bought 600k tonnes of wheat for Nov/Dec shipment, and is thought to be sourced from France at around $211/tonne.
- Ukraine’s 2020 winter grain area wrestles with extended periods of dryness.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 14 carry, Z/Z 47 ½ carry, Kansas City Z/H 13 ½ carry, Z/Z 55 carry, Chicago Z/H 5 ¼ carry, Z/Z 31 carry.
- The Mpls Dec sits at a $1.19 premium over the KC Dec. Chicago Dec sits just shy of a buck over the KC Dec.