Afternoon Market Highlights
10/24/2019 4:01:14 PM
The grain markets were on the defensive on lack of fresh supportive news, less than expected exports, improving weather and increased harvest activity. The USMCA and the US/Chinese trade war “Phase I” are still on the table with discussions ongoing and hopes for positive results. Dry-down in fields across North Dakota and Western MN continues to be a slow process with cooler temperatures moving in, despite the absence of rain events.
- November options expire with tomorrow’s close.
- First notice Day for November futures is October 31, with all long positions being reported after the close on the 30th.
- Energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil up 11 cents at $56.08/barrel.
- The US$ is up 204 at 97.69, the gold market is 9-1 buck stronger at 1501 and the CD$ is up slightly at 0.7651.
- DJIA down 28 at 26805, S&P down 2 at 3005 and the NASDAQ up 66 at 8185.
Corn prices drifted lower on weak demand and favorable weather conditions for the farmers to be able to get after the crop left in the fields prior to the winter months. The US is said to be priced from $11/tonne too high nearby to as much as $18/tonne to high June forward. We continue to see stiff competition from Ukraine, Argentina and Brazil.
- Closes: December at $3.86 ¾, down 1 cent, July at $4.10 ½, down 1 ¾ carry, September at $4.03 ¾, down 1 cent, red December at $4.08 ¼, down 1 cent, Dec 21 at $4.14 ¾, down ½ cent.
- Gulf premiums were unchanged for October and 1 cent firmer for November.
- Weekly export sales were reported at 19.3 mb versus 14.5 mb last week and 32.0 mb needed on a weekly basis.Top destinations for the week were Mexico, Columbia and Japan. YTD top destinations are Mexico, Japan and Unknown.
- IGC lowers their world production estimate 1.0 mmt to 1.098 billion tonnes. The revision comes from dryness in Argentina.
- Spreads: Z/H 11 ¼ carry, H/K 6 ½ carry, Z/N 23 ¼ carry, Z/Z 21 ½ carry.
Soybean prices were mixed with the front months pressured from disappointing export sales, increased harvest activity and farmer selling. July forward showing some strength from uncertainty about this year’s harvest and next year’s spring planting season and planted acres. Support stems from hopes for a resolution to the trade war and this week’s talk of additional Chinese purchases of US ag products over the next year or two.
- Closes: November at $9.33 ¼, down ½ cent, January at $9.47, down 1 ¼ cents, July at $9.76 ¾, up ¼ cents, red November at $9.74 ¼, up 2 cents and Nov 21 at $9.50 ¼, up 3 ¼ cents.
- Gulf premiums were stronger with October up 2 cents and November up 2-5 cents.
- Weekly export sales were reported at 17.46 mb versus 58.83 last week and 23.84 mb needed on a weekly basis. Top destinations for the week were Pakistan, Netherlands and Mexico. YTD top destinations are China, Unknown and Mexico.
- Harvest progress is Saskatchewan (through last week) was reported at 79% complete with
- IGC lowers their world production 1.0 mmt to 341 mmt.
- Spreads: X/F 13 ¾ carry, F/K 20 ¾ carry, X/H 25 carry, X/N 43 carry.
Wheat prices were on the defensive from less than expected weekly export sales, winter wheat seedings plugging along and weakness in the corn market. The focus is not on wheat as many are working getting their row crops, canola and beets out of the fields. There is still some concerns about tight supplies of good quality protein.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.40, down 2 ¼ cents, KC at $4.19 ¾, down 3 ½ cents, and Chicago at $5.16, down 4 ¾ cents.
- Weekly export sales numbers came in at 9.6 mb versus 14.5 mb last week and 13.1 needed on a weekly basis. Top destinations for the week were Mexico, Japan and Brazil. YTD top destinations are Mexico, the Philippines and Japan.
- Harvest progress in Saskatchewan (through last week) was reported at 84% for HRS and 83% for durum.
- ICG lowered their world production 2.0 mmt to 762.0 mmt, on continued dryness in Australia and Argentina. Australia is suffering from their third straight year of drought like conditions.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H Z/H 14 carry, Z/Z 46 ¼ carry, Kansas City Z/H 13 ½ carry, Z/Z 53 ½ carry, Chicago Z/H 4 ¾ carry, Z/z 32 carry.
- Mpls Dec premium sits at $1.21 ¼ over the KC Dec. Chicago Dec premium sits at 97 ½ cents over the KC Dec.