Afternoon Market Highlights
10/28/2019 2:43:55 PM
The grain markets were mixed with corn and wheat prices on the defensive and soybean prices rebounding form last week’s lows. The US and China continue discussions to work through Phase I issues prior to the Chili Summit in mid-November. Row crop harvest is the focus this week with forecasts for cooler temps and the absence of rain or snow until the end of the week.
- The energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil trading nearly a buck lower at $55.74/barrel.
- The US$ is down 0.090 at 97.74, the gold market is 11-12 bucks lower at $1,490/ounce and the CD$ is a freckle higher at 0.7666 (not sure if all those 6’s are a sign of something or not).
- DJIA up 145 at 27103, S&P up 19 at 3039, NASDAQ up 90 at 8333.
- Federal Reserve meetings take place tomorrow and Wednesday, with another interest rate hike possible.
- First Notice day for November futures is Thursday, October 31st. All longs get reported after the close on the 30th.
- The Next USDA monthly crop production and S&D report is scheduled for next week, November 8th at 11 AM Chicago Time.
- 2019 Daylight Savings Time ends November 3rd.......turn clock back 1 hour on Saturday, November 2nd.
Corn prices were lower on lack of demand and spillover weakness in the wheat market. Weekly export inspections came in well below trade expectations. Corn harvest is on but is going at a very slow pace as farmers get after their beans as they wait for the fields to dry down or freeze up and the moisture of the corn crop to come down a bit more.
- Closes: December at $3.84, down 2 ¾ cents, July at $4.07 ½, down 2 ¼ cents, September at $4.01 ¼, down 2 ¼ cents, red December at $4.05 ½, down 2 ¼ cents.
- Gulf premiums were 6 cents firmer this week and 3 cents firmer for November.
- Weekly export inspections were poor at 381 tmt.Trade was looking for 450-650 tmt.
- Harvest progress is expected to be at 43% complete with conditions unchanged at 56% G/E. Conditions never really strayed too far either way for the whole year.
- Spreads: Z/H a tickle firmer at 10 ½ carry, H/K 6 ¾ carry, Z/N 23 ¼ carry, Z/Z 21 ½ carry.
- The spread between CZ9/SX9 is at 2.3977 and between CZ0/SX0 is at 2.3939. pretty neutral bias for now.Next spring could tell a whole different tale from this fall being so wet in so many places.
The soybean market opened higher, trying to recoup some of last Friday’s big losses, but failed to hold gains by the close. Lots of bean fields got clipped this weekend, although sales were said to be on the lighter side. Much of the bushels are being put on existing contracts, Delayed Price programs or storage programs. Farmers are unwilling sellers at current price levels. There seems to be a big wait and see as to what the USDA comes up with, for yield and ending stocks, in next week’s S&D report.
- Closes: November at $9.20 ¾, up ½ cent, January at $9.35 ½, up 1 cent, July at $9.69, up 2 cents, red November at $9.70 ¾, up 3 cents.
- Gulf premiums were mostly unchanged. PNW bean bids rolled to basis the Jan.
- Weekly inspections came in at 1.6 mmt, above trade estimates at 900 tmt-1.3 mmt.
- Harvest progress is thought to be at 62% complete. Actual harvest is thought to be closer to 70% complete.
- North Dakota struggles with many fields still too we to harvest. This week’s cool/dry conditions will help get more folks out harvesting.
- Spreads: X/F 14 ¾ carry, F/K 23 ¼ carry, X/H 26 ¾ carry, X/N 47 ¾ carry.
Wheat prices were lower on plentiful world supplies, technical selling and slowed demand for US wheat. Egypt’s GASC is in this afternoon (with the lower board price) for a jag of optional origin wheat for FH Dec shipment. Weather conditions are thought to be mostly favorable for the winter wheat crop.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.27 ¾, down 9 cents, KC at $4.18, down 4 ¾ cents, Chicago at $5.11 ¾, down 6 cents.
- Winter wheat harvest progress is expected to be near 87% complete (83-95) with conditions at 57% G/E.
- Paris milling wheat traded lower on spillover weakness in the US wheat market.Losses were limited from improving demand.
- Russian wheat prices were stronger on hopes for Saudi Arabian business.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 15 carry, Z/Z 49 ¼ carry, Kansas City Z/H 13 carry, Z/Z 55 ½ carry, Chicago Z/H 6 ¼ carry, Z/Z 35 ¼ carry. Kansa City gained on Mpls with the MWZ9 at a $1.10 ¾-cent premium to the KWZ9 ((114 last week).