Afternoon Market Highlights
10/31/2019 3:23:40 PM
Quiet trade overall in the ag markets, with the farmers in the fields and the elevator guys busily dumping bean trucks and drying beans. Producers are mostly unwilling sellers at current prices. Time is of the essence as the race against the next rain and snow event continues.
- A new destination for the mid-November Summit is expected to be announced soon.The hope is that he US and China will have settled their differences for “Phase I” and a signing of that partial agreement can still take place at the Summit.
- Daylight Savings Time this weekend. Roll your clocks back Saturday night.
- USDA updated S&D report scheduled for Friday, November 8 at 11 AM Chicago Time.
- Energy markets had a softer go today with crude oil down almost a buck, trading just above $54/barrel.
- US$ softer stance continues, down 330 at 97.31, the gold market takes flight to higher levels, up 17-18 bucks at $1,514/ounce and the CD$ moves higher, up 0.00075 at 0.75990.
- DJIA down 140 at 27046, S&P down 12 at 3035, NASDAQ down 11-12 at 8292.
Corn prices were weaker on some forecasts suggesting better weather for harvesting the crop over the weekend and into next week. Month-end positioning and slowed export demand were also in the mix of today’s action. There are many unknowns with this year’s corn crop, which hopes are that there will be at least some clarity with the release of next week’s USDA data.
- Closes: December at $3.90, down ¾ cent, July at $4.10, down ½ cent, September at $4.02, down 1 cent, red December at $4.05 ¾, down 1 cent.
- Weekly export sales were in line with what the trade was looking for at 549 tmt. Weekly sales should be more like 800k in order to reach the current USDA total export target.
- There is an ongoing nervousness as to whether thee will be ample selling of corn to fill the pipe during the winter months.Corn buys are said to be a tough go right now with the farmers currently disengaged with the markets.
- Spreads: Boing! Z/H 8 ¾ carry, H/K 6 carry, Z/N 20 ¼ carry, Z/Z 16 ¼ carry, N0/Z0 4 inverse.
The soybean market trade lower at the open on harvest progress and big soybean deliveries. Prices managed to claw their way back to positive territory on hopes for a Phase I deal with China and light country selling.
- Closes: November at $9.16 ¾, up ¾ cent, January at $9.32 ¼, up 1 ¾ cents, July at $9.67 ¼, up 2 cents and red November at $9.71, up 2 ½ cents. Products were mixed with meal up 2-3 bucks and oil down 23 points.
- The canola market was on the defensive from a stronger CD$ and ample supplies of canola as harvest progress continues in the western parts of Canada. The Saskatchewan report showed canola harvest at 88% complete, up from 79% last week.
- Weekly export sales of 944 tmt were near the top end of the trade estimates (500 tmt-1.1 mmt).
- China wants to be able to purchase US ag products as they need them versus having to purchase them within a designated timeframe.This could be a stickler for finalizing the tranche of the trade war situation.
- Bean harvest continues where they can. Many farmers are getting their beans wrapped up, with not a whole lot of selling going on.
- Brazil gets a bit more rain but much more moisture is needed for the newly planted soybeans.
- Spreads: X/F 15 ½ carry, F/K 24 ¾ carry, X/H 28 ¾ carry, X/N 50 carry (fifty’s pretty nifty).
The wheat market struggles with a strong US$, stiff competition from other world players in the export arena and plentiful supplies. KC and Mpls did manage to crawl their way back to positive territory by the close. Mpls held its head high, taking the lead on the sales report today with 176,800 tonnes to the top 4 destinations of the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan and Mexico.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.24, up ½ cent, KC at $4.19 ¼, up 1 cent and Chicago at $5.08 ¾, down ½ cent.
- Weekly export sales were ok at 494 tmt. The good thing was that they were near the top end of the trade estimates.
- The BA Grain Exchange lowered the Argentine wheat production to 18.8 mmt versus 19.8 mmt previously. This compares to the latest USDA forecast at 19.0 mmt.
- EU wheat prices traded lower on weakness in Chicago and concerns of slowing export demand.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 16 ½ carry, Z/Z 52 ¼ carry, Kansas City Z/H 12 ½ carry, Z/Z 54 ½ carry.