Afternoon Market Highlights
11/1/2019 2:08:37 PM
The grain markets bounced around with strength in the beans coming from another round of US beans being sold to China. The wheat market got its legs from bouts of short covering and hopes of improving demand. Harvest activity has been stalled out in some areas from snow and/or rain events, while other areas see harvest activity push on ahead of forecasts for snowfall this weekend or early next week. There could have been some money flowing into the markets with the start of a new month and recent weakness across the grain markets.
- The USDA reports September soybean crush at 162.0 million bushels.
- The energy markets are stronger with crude oil trading over two bucks higher at $56.21/barrel.
- The US$ is 119 weaker at 97.23, the gold market is 4-5 bucks lower at $1,510/ounce and the CD$ is slightly stronger at 0.76085.
- Wall Street is mostly higher with the DJIA up 244 at 27290, S&P up 24 at 3060 and the NSDAQ up 76 at 8368.
Corn prices sag on ideas that this weekend will be a big one for harvesting corn. Moisture reports are coming in around the mid-twenties. Trade ranges were near 5 cents in modest volume. The market awaits harvest progress numbers next Monday and the USDA data next Friday.
- Closes: December at $3.89 ¼, down ¾ cent, July at $4.10, unchanged, September at $4.02 ½, up ½ cent, red December at $4.05 ¾, unchanged.
- IEG Vantage pegs the 2019/20 US corn yield at 168.6 versus the USDA at 168.4 bpa with total production at 13.797 billion bushels.
- Crop progress was reported at 41% complete last week. Harvest progress is expected to be near 60-65% through the weekend. The crop was rated at 58% G/E last week. AS the crop matures and dries down for harvest the ratings should fall.
- The USDA estimates the 2020/21 US corn acres at 94.5 million with total production at 15.545 billion bushels. Ending stocks are estimated at 2.754 billion bushels.
- Spreads: Z/H widened out to a 9 ¼-cent carry, H/K 6 carry, Z/N 20 ½ carry, Z/Z 16 ¾ carry.
Soybean prices were higher on new sales slated for China during the current marketing year. The November was up 8 cents on a stopper of the 1,424 contracts posted against the November contract (someone took ownership of the receipts that were put out last night). Once a contract month is in the delivery period there are no limits on where that contract can trade.
- Closes: January at $9.36 ¾, up 4 ½ cents, July at $9.70 ¾, up 3 ½ cents, November at $9.72, up 1 cents. The products were mixed with meal down 50 cents and oil up 28 points.
- The worm turned in the canola market after five straight sessions of weaker prices. Strength stemmed from spillover strength in the US soybean market. The Alberta canola harvest lags other areas at 71% complete.
- IEG Vantage estimates the 2019/20 soybean yield at 47.0 bpa, (on par with the USDA at 46.9) with production totaling 3.553 billion bushels.
- Crop progress last week was reported at 62% complete. Decent harvest activity should bring that total closer to 90% complete through Sunday.
- The USDA suggests US soybean plantings for 2020/21 at 84.0 million acres with total production at 4.200 billion bushels. Ending stocks are estimated to be 518 million bushels.
- Spreads: X/F 12 ¾ carry versus 15 ½ carry yesterday, F/H 12 ¼ carry, F/K 23 ¾ carry, F/N 33 ¾ carry, X/H 24 ½ carry, X/N 46 carry.
Wheat prices traded higher on continued weakness in the US$ and decent weekly export sales (especially for HRS). Chicago prices garnered support from a bout of short covering. Spring wheat bids on the west coast were said to be significantly higher this week on hopes for improving demand, amidst tight supplies of good quality protein and farmer reluctance to sell.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.31 ¼, up 7 ¼ cents, KC at $4.24 ¾, up 5 cents, Chicago at $5.16, up 7 ¼ cents.
- The USDA estimated the US 2020/21 All Wheat acres at 45.0 million, down slightly from last year at 45.2 million. Ending stocks are estimated at 925 million bushels.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 16 ½ carry, Z/Z 54 carry, Kansas City Z/H at 12 ½ carry, Z/Z 52 ½ carry, Chicago Z/H 6 carry, Z/Z 31 ½ carry.