Afternoon Market Highlights
11/4/2019 2:47:16 PM
The grain markets were soured from lack of fresh news, poor inspections for wheat and corn, improving weather conditions next week. the soybeans did manage to eek out a positive number for most months on strength in soyoil and crude oil markets.
- USDA data to be released on Friday at 11 AM CT. fears are that they will increased yield for both corn and beans. Corn ending stocks could sneak back over two billion bushels should exports be reduced enough to more than offset a yield reduction.
- The energy markets are stronger with crude oil up 28 cents at $56.48/barrel and Nat gas up 0.107 at 2.821.The propane market has gotten all riled up over the cold temps across the US Midwest.Not sure if the blue on the 6-10 Day outlook can get any bluer before turning to black (Cheeewillickers my friend!).
- US$ up 299 at 97.58, the gold market is weaker at $1,510/ounce and the CD$ is off a hair at 0.76075.
- DJIA up 81 at 27428, S&P up 11 at 3074, NASDAQ up 44 at 8431.
Corn prices traded lower on spillover weakness in the wheat market. Prices drew additional pressure from forecasts, calling for drier weather next week. Bouts of light scattered rain events are expected across the US Midwest this week. Weekly export inspections and sales continue to be disappointing, with this week’s inspections well below what the trade was looking for.
- Closes: December at $3.83 ¾, down 6 cents, July at $4.06 ½, down 3 ½ cents, September at $4.00, down 2 ½ cents, red December at $4.03 ¾, down 2 cents and Dec 21 at $4.12 ¾, down 1 cent.
- CIF premiums were 4 cents weaker for November. Barge freight values for Savage were 5% weaker for November.
- Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 276 tmt, below trade expectations of 400-650 tmt). Reports show that YTD inspections are nearly 62% behind where we were last year at this time.
- Harvest progress is estimated at 54% complete compared to 41% complete last week.
- Spreads: Z/H rolled back out to a 10-cent carry, H/K 7 carry, Z/N 23 ¼ carry, Z/Z 20 carry.
Soybean prices were higher on borrowed strength from soyoil and crude oil. Talk is that the Phase I will be agreed on and will get signed by the end of November and that Phase II discussion shave begun between the US and China.
- Closes: January at $9.38, up 1 ½ cents, July at $9.73 ½, up 2 ¾ cents, November 20 at $9.74 ½, up 2 ¼ cents, Nov 21 at $9.49 ¼, down ¼ cent. Products were mixed with meal down 1-2 bucks and oil up 84 points.
- CIF premiums were mostly steady.
- Weekly export inspections were solid at 1.5 mmt, at the top end of trade expectations (850 tmt-1.5 mmt).
- Harvest progress is expected to be near 75% complete compared to 62% complete last week.
- Brazil soybean plantings picked up after recent bouts of moisture and forecasts for additional moisture for the soybean areas this week.
- The canola market took its cue from strength in palm oil and soyoil markets. Prices drew additional strength from not knowing the size of the canola crop and end-user buying.Crushers were noted buyers of canola and sellers of soyoil and soymeal.
- Spreads: F/H 13 ¼ carry, F/K 24 ¾ carry, F/N 35 ¼ carry.
The wheat market was on the defensive from lack of fresh supportive news, plentiful supplies, a and dismal demand. Spring wheat is basically harvested, and the winter wheat is basically planted.
- December closes: $5.24 ¼, down 7 cents, KC at $4.23 ¼, down 2 ¾ cents, Chicago at $5.09 ¾, down 6 ¼ cents.
- Winter wheat plantings expected to be near 91% complete compared to 85% complete last week.
- Weekly export inspections were 293 tmt, well below trade expectations of 450-700 tmt.
- Paris milling wheat prices were lower on spillover weakness in the Chicago wheat market and stabilizing prices in Russia.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 17 carry, Z/Z 55 ½ carry, Kansas City Z/H 12 ½ carry, Z/Z 52 ¾ carry, Chicago Z/H 6 ½ carry, Z/Z 33 ¾ carry.
- KC continues to gain on Mpls with the Mpls Dec at a $1 premium to KC Dec.
- Egypt’s GASC is in the market for optional origin wheat for LH Dec.