Afternoon Market Highlights
11/8/2019 3:08:50 PM
The ag markets were quiet ahead of the USDA report at 11 am Chicago Time. President Trump says he did not agree to rollback tariffs on Chinese goods. Forecasts call for a brief warmup is parts of the US this weekend with a return to mighty cold temperatures moving in next week.
- The canola market will be closed on Monday.
- US ag markets will trade regular hours on Monday, but the USDA and banks will be on holiday in honor of our Veterans.
- Weekly export inspections, crop progress and conditions report, and weekly export sales will be delayed one day because of the holiday on Monday.
- The energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil up 26 cents at $57.40/barrel.
- The US$ is up 236 at 98.37, the gold market is down 5-6 bucks at $1,467/ounce and the CD$ is slightly lower at 0.75625.
- Wall Street is mixed with the DJIA down 12 at 27662, S&P up 4-5 at 3090 and the NASDAQ up 30 at 8464.
Corn prices were lifted up from the USDA reducing their corn yield projection, resulting in a slight reduction to the 2019/20 ending stocks. The 2018/19 balance sheet was left unchanged. Forecasts for warmer temperatures with chances for rain and/or snow could hamper harvest progress.
- Closes: December at $3.77 ¼, up 2 cents, July at $3.99 ¾, up 2 cents, September at $3.96 ¼, up 1 ½ cents and red December at $4.01, up 1 ½ cents.
- USDA announced the sale of 217k tonnes of corn to an unknown destination for the current marketing year.
- Harvest progress was last reported at 52%, with expectations of being 60-70% complete through Sunday.
- The USDA lowered 2019/20 yield to 167.0 bpa, lowering production to 13.661 bb.Feed/Residual, ethanol and exports were reduced by 25.0 mb, 25.0 mb and 50.0 mb respectively.
- Spreads: Z/H 9 carry, Z/N 22 carry, Z/Z 23 ¼ carry, H/K 6 ¾ carry, H/N 13 carry.
The soybean market see-sawed back and forth on new exports business announced this morning amidst renewed concerns for a Phase I deal to get final blessings from the US and China. Prices turned lower after the release of the USDA report midday.
- Closes: January at $9.31, down 5 ½ cents, July at $9.66, down 4 ¾ cents, November at $9.67 ¼, down 5 cents. The products were mixed with meal 70 cents lower and oil up 7 points.
- USDA announced the sale of 270k tonnes of beans to an unknown destination for the current marketing year.
- The canola market garnered strength from Canadian farmers struggling to get their crop harvested and borrowed strength in the palm oil and soyoil markets. Alberta’s canola harvest was reported at 83% complete as of November 5th.A bout of light short covering was noted ahead of a three-day weekend.
- Harvest progress was 75% complete last week with expectations of being 85-95% complete through Sunday.
- The USDA left the 2019/20 harvested acres and yield unchanged from their October report. The only change made to either balance sheet was a 15.0 mb reduction in crush for 2019/20, which raised ending stocks by a like amount to 475 mb for 2019/20.
- Spreads: F/H 13 carry, F/K 24 carry, F/N 34 ½ carry.
The wheat market traded lower prior to the USDA report. Prices bounced slightly on reductions to spring wheat, white wheat and durum wheat production. The wheat market finished the day in negative territory. Gains were limited from an increase in world ending stocks. Production increases were seen in the EU, Russia and Ukraine.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.18 ½, down ¼ cent, KC at $4.20 ½, down 4 ¼ cents and Chicago at $5.10 ¼, down 2 ¼ cents.
- The USDA lowered all wheat production, food and seed, resulting in a 12.0 mb reduction to ending stocks.
- Spring wheat production was lowered 37.0 mb and domestic use was lowered 8.0 mb resulting in a 29.0 mb reduction to ending stocks.Stocks to use remains at 50%.
- HRW ending stocks were increased by 2.0 mb from a like reduction in Domestic use, which leaves stocks to use at 57%.
- Durum production was lowered 4.0 mb to 54.0 mb with a stocks to use ratio of 41%.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 16 ¼ carry, Kansas City Z/H 9 ¼ carry, Chicago Z/H 3 ¾ carry.
Thank you for your service and keeping us safe