Afternoon Market Highlights
11/12/2019 2:42:03 PM
The Ag markets were mostly higher on technicals and strength in the wheat market. This week’s cold snap should allow farmers to scoot across the fields and harvest their crops. President Trump says the US and China are closed to signing the Phase One trade agreement, providing it is for the good of the US.
- The energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil trading 11 cents lower at $56.76/ barrel.
- The US$ turns higher, trading up 145 at 98.34, the gold market is 1-2 bucks stronger at $1,458/ounce and the CD$ is off a freckle at 0.75650.
- DJIA down 21 at 27670, S&P up 2-3 at 3089, NASDAQ up 8 at 8472.
A technical bounce in the wheat market, spurred on light buying interest in the corn market. The December dipped down to $3.72 ¾, levels we were trading at in late September. The Dec closed at $3.72 ½ on September 26th and then rallied to $4.02 ½ by October 14.
- Closes: December at $3.77 ¾, up 4 ½ cents, July at $3.98 ¾, up 3 ¾ cents, September at $3.95 ¼, up 2 ½ cents and red December at $4.00, up 1 ¾ cents.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 560 tmt, better than the past couple of weeks but still light of the 800 tmt needed on a weekly basis to meet the current USDA target. Trade estimates were at 350-600 tmt.
- Harvest progress estimated at 68% complete (65-73).
- Spreads: Z/H getting squeezed a bit as it moved into a 7 ¾ -cent carry. It closed at 8 ¾ carry.
The soybean market traded mixed (in a 3-5-cent trading range), with pressure stemming from the Phase One trade deal not being a done deal yet. Prices drew support from the corn and wheat markets. January settled at levels we saw mid-September, before the rally to $9.59 ½ in mid-October.
- Closes: January at $9.17, unchanged, July at $9.53 ¾, up ¼ cent, November at $9.57 ¼, up ¼ cent. The products were mixed with meal up 1-2 bucks and soyoil down 39 points.
- Weekly export inspections were decent at 1.3 mmt, near the top end of the trade estimates at 800 tmt-1.6 mmt.
- Harvest progress estimated at 87% complete (83-91).
- The canola market traded lower in sympathy with other related oils like Malaysian palm oil and US soyoil. Concerns about unharvested Canadian canola were offset some what from ample canola stocks from the previous year’s harvest.
- Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazil 2019/20 bean estimate slightly to 123.5 mmt. Argentine soybean production estimate was lowered to 55.0 mmt. Agroconsult pegged their Brazil production estimate at 124.0 mmt. these compare to the USDA at 123.0 mmt.
- Agroconsult pegs Brazil’s soybean exports to China at 57.0 mmt for 2018/19 and 53.0 mmt for 2019/20.
- Spreads: F/H 13 ½ carry, (62% of full carry at 21 ¾ cents) F/K 25 ¾ carry, F/N 36 ¼ carry.
Wheat prices were higher on a technical bounce (from ideas of being a bit oversold) and cold weather concerns across the Southern Plains this week. KC gained on Mpls and Chicago. Prices drew additional support from better than expected weekly export inspections.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.21 ¾, up 6 ½ cents, KC at $4.38 ½, up 15 ½ cents, Chicago at $5.17, up 11 ¼ cents.
- Weekly export inspections came in at 529 tmt (132 HRS, 157 HRW, 48 SRW, 171 White and 20 HAD), over the top end of trade estimates (300-500 tmt).
- Winter wheat plantings are estimated at 93% complete (89-96) with conditions at 57% G/E (56-58).
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 15 carry, Kansas City Z/H 6 ½ carry, Chicago Z/H 5 carry.Mpls Dec sits at an 83 ¾ cent premium over KC Dec and Chicago Dec sits at a 78-cent premium over KC Dec.