Afternoon Market Highlights
11/14/2019 3:14:19 PM
Another quiet day in the grain markets. China bought a jag of beans and Egypt bought wheat. No deal yet on “Phase One” but in-depth talks are said to be taking place.
- CHS Hedging classes have been posted on our website. Check out the dates and time. Plan to attend one or all of them. I believe we have spruced them up a bit.
- The energy markets are mixed with crude oil down 21 cents at $56.91/barrel.
- The US$ is down 201 at 98.172, the gold market is up 7-8 bucks at $1,417/ounce and the CD$ is slightly weaker at 0.7548.
- DJIA down 2 at 27781, S&P up 2 at 3098, NASDAQ steady at 8482.
Prices clawed their way to positive territory on hopes of increased feed demand and decent ethanol production and stocks numbers. Harvest activity could be tough with forecasts of warmer temperatures across the US Midwest this weekend.
- Closes: December at $3.75 ¼, up ½ cent, July at $3.96 ½, up ¾ cent, September at $3.94, up 1 ¼ cents, red December at $3.99, up 1 ½ cents.
- CIF premiums were steady. Processor bids/ cash bids steady to firmer on lack of solid movement.
- Weekly ethanol production was reported at 1.030 billion barrels per day, up 16k bpd. Stocks are down 900k barrels to 210 million barrels.
- Ethanol production has seen an increase for the past 7 weeks and stocks are near 2-year lows.
- China lifted their long-time ban on US poultry imports.
- Weekly exports sales estimates: 400-800 tmt for corn.
- Harvest progress lags last year and the 5-year average, with more and more reports of farmers looking to leave the balance of the crop in the field until next spring.
- Spreads: Z/H 9 carry, Z/N 20 ½ carry, Z/Z 23 ¼ carry, H/K 5 ¾ carry, H/N 11 ¾ carry.
The soybean markets closed mixed on concerns over US/Chinese trade war issues including in the “Phase One” agreement. Talk is that both sides are involved with “in-depth” discussions to resolve issues like rolling back tariffs. Processor bids firm on lack of significant movement.
- Closes: January at $9.16 ¾, up 1 ½ cents, July at $9.51 ¼, down ¼ cent, November at $9.52, down 3 ¼ cents. The products were mixed with meal down a buck and oil up 25 points.
- CIF premiums were 1 cent firmer.
- Weekly export sales estimates: 800 tmt -1.4 mmt for beans, 100-350 tmt for meal and 5-25 tmt for oil.
- USDA announced the sale of 129k tonnes of beans to China for the 2019/20 marketing year.
- The canola market traded higher on crop quality and yield for the crop that is yet to be harvested in Canada. Prices drew additional support from strong demand and sympathy from the US soyoil market. Jan canola closed up 90 cents at $462.70.
- Spreads: F/H 12 ¾ carry, F/K 24 ¾ carry, F/N 35 carry.
The wheat market was under the gun again today on plentiful global supplies and light demand for US wheat. Egypt bought a slug of wheat for FH Jan and there was no US wheat in the mix. Spring wheat movement seems to have picked up this week.
- December closes: Mpls at $5.12 ¾, down 2 ¼ cents, KC at $4.22, down 2 ¾ cents, Chicago at $5.07 ¾, down 1 ¼ cents.
- Egypt’s GASC bought a whopping 465k tonnes of wheat for FH Jan shipment at xxx (120k Ukraine and 345k Russian). Prices ranged from $231.98-$232.35/tonne.
- BA Grain Exchange pegs the Argentine wheat crop at 18.5 mmt versus 18.8 mmt previously. This compares to the Rosario Exchanges estimate yesterday at 19.0 mmt and the USDA at 20.0 mmt.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 14 ½ carry, Kansas City Z/H 8 ¾ carry, Chicago Z/H 3 ¼ carry.