Afternoon Market Highlights
11/25/2019 2:52:47 PM
A sour day for the row crops, despite strength in the wheat market. Short trading week this week, not so good weather conditions expected for the US this week could bring about some choppy trade action as folks get their positions aligned ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday and long weekend (with many folks looking to be off the markets on Friday also).
- Crop progress this afternoon is expected to show little progress done last week.
- Weekly export sales will be delayed until Friday.
- Ag markets trade regular hours Wednesday, no trade Wednesday evening or Thursday. Trade resumes Friday morning at 830 AM Chicago Time.
- CHS Hedging will not be putting out our daily Afternoon Market Highlights on Friday, November 29th. The scribes will return on Monday, December 2nd.
- Energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil up 23 cents at $58.00/barrel.
- The US$ turned higher, up 41 at $98.31, gold down 8-9 cents at $1.454/ounce and the CD$ is slightly lower at 0.7521.
- DJIA up 169 at 28045, S&P up 17 at 3129 and the NASDAQ up 108 at 8627.
The corn market got a boost higher, on the coat tails of the wheat market, but failed to hold the higher levels. There is some optimism that the US could see increased export demand down the road, as Brazil sales have been robust over the past several weeks. Beneficial rains are expected this week for Brazil and Argentina.
- Closes: December at $3.70 ½, up 1 ¾ cents, July at $3.92, up 3 ¼ cents, September at $3.91 ½, up 3 cents and red December at $3.95 ½, up 3 cents.
- The corn sales announced last week are now said to be soybeans.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 605k tonnes.
- Crop progress is expected to be near 85% complete through yesterday.
- A couple of snow storms are expected to move across the US Midwest this week and weekend.
- Corn crop in the field is still in the 20’s for moisture, with low test weights and higher foreign material.This corn seems to be making its way to the ethanol plants. Some plants are not taking corn over 5.0% FM.
- Argentine farmers are keen to make corn sales ahead of any possible tax increases, with the implementation of the newly elected President Alberto Fernandez. The new president takes office December 10 and current taxes on corn are at 7%.
- Corn planting for Argentina was reported at 44% complete.
- Spreads: Z/H 10 ¼ carry, consider the roll if you are holding short hedges in the Dec, Z/N 21 ½ carry, Z/Z 25 ¼ carry, H/K 5 ¾ carry, H/N 11 ¼ carry.
The soybean market slumped on lack of striking a deal on Phase One of the US/Chinese trade war. Favorable weather conditions in SA this week provided additional pressure on the soybean market.
- Closes: January at $8.92 ½, down 4 ½ cents, July at $9.33 ¼, down 3 ¾ cents and November at $9.41 ¾, down ¾ cents. Products were weaker with meal down 70 cents and oil down 44 points.
- Weekly export inspections were decent at 1.9 mmt. Last week’s corn sales are being reported as soybean sales this week.
- Crop progress is expected to show harvest at 95% complete through Sunday, November 24th.
- The canola market traded lower in sympathy with the US soyoil market. A CN rail strike in Canada is raising a ruckus with logistics.
- Spreads: F/H 14 ½ carry, F/K 28 ¼ carry, F/N 40 ¾ carry, N/X 8 ½ carry, X/F 5 carry.
The wheat market stirred on adverse weather conditions around the globe. The US is expecting a snow storm or two this week and over the weekend, while dry conditions persist in Russia, Ukraine, Argentina and Australia. Prices garnered additional strength from stronger world prices for wheat.
- December closes: Mpls at $4.98 ¼, up 5 ½ cents (contract low is at $4.86 ½), KC at $4.34 ½, up 10 ½ cents and Chicago at $5.31, up 15 ¾ cents.
- Paris milling wheat prices are stronger on the rally in the Chicago wheat market.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 421k tonnes (163k spring, 92k HRW, 8k SRW 107k Soft White and 49k HAD).
- Ethiopia is in for 400k tonnes of optional origin wheat. The lowest offer runs from $214.44/tonne to $218.44/tonne C&F (tender is for four separate 100k tonne lots).
- US winter wheat crop conditions expected to decline 1% to 51% G/E as of Sunday.
- Spreads: Mpls Z/H 14 ¾ carry, Kansas City Z/H 9 ¾ carry, Chicago Z/H 1 ¾ carry.