Afternoon Market Highlights
12/4/2019 3:10:37 PM
Quiet trade again today on lack of fresh supportive news. No deal on a trade deal yet. China was said to have record bean imports in November and they are still buying a few cargoes each week from Brazil (might just be stockpiling until the SA crop is harvested).
- The energy markets were mostly stronger with crude oil up over 2 bucks at $58.34/barrel.
- The US$ don 124 at 97.61, the gold market is down 4 bucks at 1477 and the CD$ is up 0.00605 at 0.7582.
- DJIA is up 178 at 27680, S&P up 17 at 3108 and NASDAQ up 53 at 8573.
Corn prices closed lower after the March failed to hold above its 10 & 20-Day MA’s. Losses were limited from dryness in Argentina. Markets for corn are pretty slim, for the quality of corn this year. The ethanol plants seems to be the bright spot for corn, although am hearing that the minimum TW they will accept is 50 pounds. Talk is that more and more farmers are looking to leave the corn standing in the field for now.
- Closes: March at $3.78 ½, down 2 ¾ cents, July at $3.89 ¼, down 2 ½ cents, September at $3.87 ½, down 1 cent and December at $3.92, down ¼ cent. July 21 closed at $4.10 ¼ and Dec 21 closed at $4.06 ¼.
- CIF premiums were unchanged to a penny weaker for December.
- IEG Vantage estimates the Argentine corn crop a t 46.0 mmt. This compares to the current USDA forecast at 50.0 mmt. Brazil’s crop is estimated at 103.0 mmt (27.0 first crop). This compares to the USDA at 101.0 mmt.
- Weekly export sales are estimated at 500-900 tmt. Neither sales or shipments are where they need to be to reach the current USD export target.
- Spreads: H/K 6 ¼ carry, H/N 10 ¾ carry, N/Z 3 carry.
Soybean prices got a spark from optimism that a trade deal could get done before the end of the year rather than waiting until after the 2020 presidential elections next November. Additional support came from strength in the crude oil market. Soyoil futures got a boost from the announced export sale to Morocco.
- Closes: January at $8.78, up 7 cents, July at $9.20, up 6 cents, November at $9.29 ¼, up 3 ¾ cents. The products were firmer with meal up 2 bucks at oil up 28 points.
- CIF premiums were a penny weaker for December.
- The USDA announced the sale of 20k tonnes of soyoil to Morocco for the current marketing year.
- Weekly export sales are estimated at 700 tmt-1.3 mmt for beans, 100-300 tmt for meal and 5-25 tmt for soyoil.
- IEG Vantage pegs the Brazilian bean crop at 124.5 mmt. this compares to the USDA at 123.0 mmt.
- Spreads: F/H 14 ½ carry, F/K 29 carry, F/N 41 ¾ carry, N/X 9 ¼ carry, X/F 5 ½ carry.
The wheat market traded higher, bouncing back from recent weakness. Gains were limited from weakness in the corn market.
- March closes: Mpls at $5.15, up 1 ½ cents, KC at $4.40 ½, up 3 ¾ cents, Chicago at $5.27 ½, up 2 ¼ cents.
- Weekly export sales are estimated at 300-700 tmt. I’m hoping for 700 tmt.
- IEG Vantage pegs the Russian wheat crop at 76.0 mmt. This compares to the USDA at 74.0 mmt. Australia’s wheat crop is estimated at 15.9 mmt versus the USDA at 17.2 mmt.
- Spreads: Mpls H/K 9 ¼ carry, Kansas City H/K 7 ½ carry, and Chicago H/K 4 carry.