Afternoon Market Highlights
12/26/2019 3:19:37 PM
Pretty quiet day in the grain markets as many participants spent the day off the market, enjoying family, friends and holiday cheer. Weekly export sales are expected to be released tomorrow at 730 CT.
- January options expire tomorrow.
- First Notice Day for January futures is Tuesday, December 31st, with all long positions being reported after the close on Monday, December 30th.
- Don’t forget to check your January open positions and get out of any you won’t be needing.
- Energy markets are mostly stronger with crude oil up 59 cents at $61.70/barrel.
- The US$ is down 111 at 97.54, the gold market is up 11-12 bucks at $1,512/ounce, and the CD$ is up 0.00315 at 0.76375.
- DJIA is up 46 at 28562, S&P up 12 at 3238 and the NASDAQ up 52 at 9004.
The corn market was slightly higher in thin, holiday trade. Strength came from the rally in the wheat market and pressure came from traders evening up their year-end positions.
- Closes: March at $3.88 ½, up 1 cent, July at $4.01 ¼, up ¾ cent, September at $4.01, up ½ cent, December at $4.02 ¾, up ¾ cent.
- Gulf premiums were 1-cent higher for January.
- Weekly exports sales estimates: 500 tmt-1.3 mmt.
- Spreads: H/K 6 ¾ carry, H/N 12 ¾ carry, N/Z 1 ¼ carry.
Soybean prices were supported on overnight strength in the Malaysian palm oil market, a bout of short covering and hopes for increased demand from the January signing of the Phase One trade agreement. SA weather conditions prove mostly favorable weather there are some ideas there could be some dryness developing in the next few weeks. January is thought to be the critical month for soybeans in Brazil, so the focus will turn to SA weather as we move into the next year.
- Closes: March at $9.46 ½, up 1 ¾ cents, July at $9.70 ¼, up 1 cent, November at $9.72 ¼, up 1 ½ cents. The products were mixed with meal down 2-3 bucks and oil up 5 points.
- Gulf premiums were 1cent weaker for FH Jan and 2 cents weaker for LH Jan.
- Weekly export sales estimates: 700 tmt-1.5 mmt for beans, 100-300 tmt for meal and 5-30 tmt for soyoil.
- Spreads: F/H 8 ¾ carry, F/K 21 ¾ carry, F/N 33 carry, N/X 2 ½ carry, X/F 2 ¾ carry.
The wheat market traded higher on technical buying in modest volume. Position squaring ahead of the year-end was noted. There are some concerns emerging, about tightening supplies in some of the bigger players in the world export market. The Mpls March is back at its November 1st level of $5.48 and within striking distance of its 200-Day MA of $5.52 ¾.
- Closes: Mpls March at $5.47 ¼, up 4 ¼ cents, KC at $4.70 ½, up 10 cents and Chicago at $5.49, up 8 cents.
- The Chicago March tickled $5.52 (the high back on July 1st and 2 ½ cents short of the high on July 15th). On December 17th we reached a high of $5.57 ¼.
- Weekly export sales estimates: 200-900 tmt.
- Russia’s SovEcon reduced their 2019/2020 export forecast to 33.1 mmt and noted that there could be another reduction next month from reductions in their overall production.
- Spreads: Mpls H/K 8 ½ carry, Kansas City H/K 8 ½ carry and Chicago H/K 2 ½ carry.