Afternoon Market Highlights
12/30/2019 2:52:03 PM
The grain markets were choppy ahead of the month end, quarter end and year end. Support stemmed from ideas that the US could see increased demand from China, for most grains, after the first of the year.
- The energy markets are mostly lower with crude oil down 17 cents at $61.55/barrel.
- The US$ down 156 at 96.72, the gold market up 0.4 at $1,518/ounce and the CD$ is stronger at 0.7662.
- DJIA down 163 at 28481, S&P down 13 at 3224 and NASDAQ down 56 at 8950.
- Regular trade hours tomorrow and will be closed Wednesday in observance of the New Year’s Day Holiday. The trade resumes Thursday at 830 AM CT.
- The final 2019/20 production report from the USDA is scheduled for January 10th at 11 AM CT.The USDA is scheduled to release their Dec 1 Grain Stocks report along with their first assessment of the 2020 winter wheat seedings.
The corn market struggled from the get-go, and a weak export inspections number gave very little support to the corn market. The March contract climbed to a high of $3.92 but failed to take out the November 8th high of $3.92 ¼. Prices saw pressure from a bout of profit taking.
- Closes: March at $3.88 ¼, down 1 ¾ cents, July at $4.01 ½, down 1 ¼ cents, September at $4.01 ½, down ¾ cent, December at $4.03, down ½ cent.
- Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 409 tmt, below the trade estimates of 450-650 tmt.
- As of last Tuesday, the funds were thought to be short 85k contracts.
- Spreads: H/K 7 carry, H/N 13 ¼ carry, N/Z 1 ½ carry.
Soybean prices were stronger during the early hours of the session on weather worries for parts of SA bean growing areas and hopes for increased demand from China after the first of the year.Prices retreated midday as buying interest started to wane but rallied back into the close.
- Closes: March at $9.52 ½, up 11 cents, July at $9.77 ½, up 10 ¾ cents, November at $9.77, up 7 ¼ cents. The products were stronger with meal up 2-3 bucks and oil up 44 points.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 911 tmt, in line with trade estimates of 750 tmt-1.3 mmt.
- Deliveries against the Jan contract are estimated at: 0-1100 for beans, 200-700 for meal and 500-1000 for soyoil. First Notice day is tomorrow. All longs were reported after the close today.
- Canola traded higher on ideas of being oversold and borrowed strength in the US soy complex.Gains were limited from a stronger CD$ and technical resistance.
- As of last Tuesday, the funds were thought to be short 33k beans, 24k meal and long 119k soyoil.
- Spreads: H/K 13 ½ carry, K/N 11 ½ carry, N/X ¾ inverse, X/F 2 ½ carry.
The wheat market opened higher on optimism that China will be buying US wheat after the trade deal is signed in early January. Prices retreated midday on a bout of profit taking. Mpls seemed to have gotten a boost from possible short covering with reports of funds carrying a near record short position in Mpls. KC and Chicago finished the day near unchanged.
- March closes: Mpls at $5.57, up 3 ½ cents, KC at $4.79 ¾, unchanged, Chicago at $5.56, down ¼ cent.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 312 tmt, at the low end of the trade estimates at 300-650 tmt.
- As of Christmas Eve, the funds were thought to be short nearly 15k in Mpls, 5k in Kc and long 19k Chicago.
- Spreads: Mpls H/K 9 ¼ carry, Kansas City H/K 8 ½ carry, Chicago H/K 3 ½ carry.