Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

Quiet day in the grain markets with most all grain prices closing slightly lower. The market awaits the USDA report on Friday at 11 AM CST. 

  • China is not expected to increase their lower import tariff quotas on corn, wheat and rice, despite indications of stepping up their overall purchases of US ag goods.
  • The energy markets are mostly lower with crude oil down 58 cents at $62.69/barrel.
  • The US$ is up 339 at 97.01, the gold market is up 3-4 bucks at $1,572/ounce and the CD$ is down 0.0023 at 0.76915.
  • DJIA is down 116 at 28587, S&P down 4-5 at 3238 and NASDAQ up 2-3 at 9073.     

Corn

Corn prices were on the defensive from increased tensions in the Middle East and a stronger US$. Favorable weather conditions across Brazil and Argentina provided additional pressure. The market focus is turning to what the USDA will post for harvest corn acres for 2019-20. 

  • Closes: March at $3.84 ½, down ¼ cent, July at $3.97 ¾, down ¼ cent, September at $3.97 ¼, down ¼ cent and December unchanged at $4.
  • The average trade estimate for 2019 ending stocks is at 1.757 bb (1.537-1.915), world stocks at 296.61 mmt (290.50-301.70) and Dec 1 stocks at 11.511 bb (11.290-11.660).
  • The average trade estimate for harvested acres, yield and production: 81.350 million.....166.2 bpa.......13.513 bb.
  • India raises their corn tender from 50k tonnes to 175k tonnes.
  • Spreads: H/K 6 ¾ carry, H/N 13 carry, N/Z 2 ¼ carry.

 Oilseeds

The soybean market was lower on position squaring ahead of Friday’s USDA data. The 2019 US soybean crop is expected to see a reduction from the December USDA estimate of 3.550 bb. Favorable weather conditions for Brazil’s most dry areas this week added pressure to the soybean market. Rio Grande Do Sul is expected to see much needed moisture later this week. 

  • Closes: Arch at $944, down ¾ cent, July at $9.69 ½, down 1 cent, November at $9.73 ½, down ½ cent. The products were mixed with meal down 1-2 bucks and oil up 22 points.
  • The average trade estimate fore 2019 ending stocks is at 0.424 mb (0.310-0.490), world stocks at 95.23 mmt (91.70-97.50) and Dec 1 stocks at 3.186 bb (3.023-3379).
  • The average trade estimate for harvested acres, yield and production: 75.462 million....46.6 bpa....3.512 bb.
  • Bumper crops are expected to be harvested in Brazil and Argentina from beneficial rain events.
  • The dry areas of Brazil are forecast to receive much needed moisture this week.
  • Spreads: H/K 13 carry, H/N 25 ½ carry, N/X 3 ¾ carry, X/F 4 ¾ carry. 

Wheat

Wheat prices continue to show weakness on strength in the US$ and increased tensions in the Middle East.  Egypt’s GASC tenders for optional origin wheat for LH Feb shipment. Loses were limited from a bout of short covering near the close. 

  • March closes: Mpls at $5.46 ¾, down 1 ¼ cents, KC at $4.75 ½, down 1 ¾ cents and Chicago at $5.50 ¼, up ¼ cent.
  • The average trade estimate for US ending stocks is at 0.969 mb (0.930-1.000), world stocks at 287.32 mmt (278.20-290.00) and Dec 1 grain stocks at 1.917 bb (1.806-2.010),
  • All winter wheat acres are estimated at 30.664 million acres (29.900-32.180), compared to 31.159 million acres last year.
  • Acres by class estimates: 22.086 ma for HRW (21.4-23.1), 5.118 ma for SRW (4.6-5.6) and 3.5 ma for white winter wheat (3.4-3.6).
  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 9 ¾ carry, Kansas City H/K 8carry, Chicago H/K 3 ¼ carry.