Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

The long awaited USDA data has now come and gone with not a lot of fanfare. There were minor adjustments to the US balance sheets and the world balance sheets. The USDA announced they would look to re-survey farmers in ND, SD, MN, MI and WI because of the delayed fall harvest. The market now looks forward to the Jan 15 Phase One signing ceremony new week and the March 1 Grain Stocks and March 31st 2020/21 Prospective Planting Intentions. 

  • The energy markets are mixed with crude oil down 44 cents at $59.12/barrel.
  • The US$ is a shade lower at 97.37, the gold market is stronger, up 6-7 bucks at $1,561/ounce and the CD$ is steady at 0.7656.
  • DJIA down 156 at 28800, S&P down 10-11 at 3266 and NASDAQ down 35-36 at 9167.
  • StatsCan updated stocks/production report is scheduled for February 5th    

Corn

 The corn market trade slightly higher on a bout of short covering and renewed buying interest ahead of next week’s trade agreement signing. The market was waiting for a reduction the corn supply, but the USDA raised the corn yield one bushels per acre to 168.0 bpa. 

  • Closes: March at $3.85 ¾, up 2 ½ cents, July at $3.99 ½, up 2 ¾ cents, September at $4.00 ½, up 2 ¾ cents, December at $4.02 ¾, up 2 ¾ cents.
  • CIF premiums were mostly steady.
  • Weekly export sales were disappointing at 161 tmt.
  • The USDA raised the 2018/19 ending stocks and lowered the 2019/20 ending stocks. 2018/19 stocks were raised from a reduction in domestic use and 2019/20 was reduced from an increase in domestic use.
  • Spreads: H/K 6 ¾ carry, H/N 13 ¼ carry, N/Z 3 carry. 

Oilseeds

The soybean market was slightly higher ideas of increased demand, despite a neutral/negative USDA report and big crop ideas for Brazil. Weekly export sales were disappointing and below trade estimates. Next week is thought to be the signing of the long awaited Phase One Trade Agreement with China. 

  • Closes: March at $9.46, up 2 ½ cents, July at $9.71, up 2 ¾ cents, November at $9.74 ¾, up 3 ¼ cents. The products were mixed with meal up 2-3 bucks and oil down 28 points.
  • Favorable weather expected for Brazil and Argentina over the next week or so. The US pegged the Brazilian soybean crop at 123.0 mmt, up 6.0 mmt from last year.
  • Weekly export sales were reported at 359 tmt, below trade estimates between 400 & 850 tmt.
  • Spreads: H/K 13 carry, H/N 25 carry, N/X 3 ¾ carry, X/F 4 ¼ carry. 

Wheat

The wheat market was mixed on the day from bigger than expected winter wheat seedings and lower than expected Dec 1 grain stocks. The wheat rallied significantly ahead of the USDA report on crop concerns in Australia, Ukraine and Russia and low winter wheat acres in the US. 

  • March closes: Mpls at $5.58 ¼, up 6 ¼ cents, KC at $4.94, up 3 ¾ cents, Chicago at $5.64 ½, up 2 ¼ cents.
  • Weekly export sales were disappointing at 131 tmt. The trade was expecting 200-550 tmt.
  • Winter wheat seedings were pegged at 30.804 million acres, above the average trade estimate of 30.664 million acres, but represents the smallest acreage number since the year 1909.
  • By class breakdown was: HRW acres at 21.8 million, SRW acres at 5.64 million and White Winter acres at 3.37 million.
  • World stocks were lower on reductions in Australia and Russia. Argentina was left unchanged and the EU was raised a half a million tonnes.
  • Stocks to use ratios sit at 56.5% for HRW, 46.2% for HRS, 35.8% for SRW, 30.4% for White and 16.4% for HAD.
  • Spring wheat saw a five million bushel increase in feed use, which lowered ending stocks by a like amount.
  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 8 ¾ carry, Kansas City H/K at 7 ½ carry, and Chicago H/K at 1 ¾ carry.