Afternoon Market Highlights


Highlights

Massive weakness continues across the equity and energy markets.  There is a real fear and concern of what the worst case scenario might end up being.  Travel restrictions about the world, just ahead of spring break vacations and summer travel has the energy world seriously on the defensive with much anticipation of significantly reduce use of gasoline an most likely ethanol. 

  • The energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil down 2.81 at 28.89.
  • The US$ traded lower, down 647 at 98.08, the gold market bounced higher but is still down 27-28 bucks at 1489 and the CD$ is down slightly at 0.71535.
  • DJIA continues the meltdown, trading 2253 lower at 20932, S&P down 247 at 2447, NASDAQ down 740 at 7135.
  • There are mixed opinions as to whether we see a recession in the US or not.
  • The next USDA report will be the 2020 Planting Intentions and March 1 Grain Stocks at the end of the month.
  • StatsCan is scheduled to issues their 2020 Planting intentions on April 4th. 

Corn

Corn prices were sharply lower on huge declines in outside markets. A decent inspections figure was not able to push corn prices higher. Deep double digit losses in the neighboring bean market added additional pressure to the corn market. The next line of support for May corn is seen at $3.40. 

  • Closes: May at $3.54 ¾, down 11 cents, July at $3.58 ½, down 11 cents, September at $3.61, down 6 ¾, and December at $3.67, down 6 cents.
  • Many months made new contract lows for the start of the week.
  • Gulf premiums were 4 cents weaker for Mar and Apr and 3 cents weaker for May.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 978k tonnes, near the top end of trade estimates (700 tmt-1.050 mmt).
  • Ethanol margins continue in the red. There are concerns as to how long they will continue to take on the lower grade corn.
  • Spreads: K/N 3 ½ carry, N/U 1 ½ carry, N/Z 7 ½ carry, Z/N1 at 17 ¼ cent carry.

Oilseeds

Soybean prices tumbled lower on worries about future demand for US soybeans.  Inspections came in pretty poorly. The whole trade pact with China seems to have gotten overshadowed by the CoronaVirus and uncertainty over the fate of the global economy.  The next line of support for the May soybeans is seen at $8.17. 

  • Closes: May at $8.21 ¾, down 27 cents, July at $8.30 ½, down 25 ½ cents, August at $8.35 ¼, down 24 ¼ cents, November at $8.44 ¾, down 19 ¾ cents. Products were lower with meal down 3-4 bucks and oil down 138 points.
  • Soymeal prices garnered underlying support from hopes of improving demand on shrinking supplies in China. Soy oil tumbles on spillover weakness in the crude oil market.
  • This is said to be the biggest one day decline since August of 2018 for the May contract.
  • Gulf premiums were mostly steady for M/A and 1 cent weaker for May.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 436 tmt, near the low end of the trade estimates (400-750 tmt).
  • Brazil is still expected to pull off a pretty decent bean crop this year, despite inklings that here might be some crop losses and reductions in production from overly wet weather conditions.
  • Spreads: K/N 8 ¼ carry, N/Q 4 ½ carry, N/X 13 ½ carry, Q/X 9 ¼ carry, X/F 4 ¼ carry, X/N1 9 carry. 

Wheat

Wheat prices were mixed with the KC and Chicago markets getting swooped up by weakness in the row crops, along with the energy and equity markets. The Mpls market managed to claw its way back to positive territory on talk of unwinding KC/Mpls spreads. The next line of support for the Chicago May is seen at $4.40. Support in Mpls is seen at $5 and KC at $4.15. 

  • May closes: Mpls at $5.09 ¾, up 1 ¾ cents, KC at $4.24, down 7 ½ cents, Chicago at $4.98, down 8 cents.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 450 tmt, in-line with trade expectations (350-600 tmt). Class breakdown: NSW 164....HRW 125...SRW 66....White 60......HAD 34.
  • There were 573 shipments to Canada listed on this morning’s inspections report.
  • Spreads: Mpls K/N 9 ½ carry, U/Z 15 ½ carry, Kansas City K/N 7 ¼ carry, K20/K21 54 carry, Chicago K/N 1 ½ carry, N/U 6 carry.
  • The Mpls May sits at an 86-cent premium to the KC May.