Afternoon Market Highlights
3/19/2020 5:56:02 PM
Welcome to the first day of Spring for 2020. The ag markets got some relief on an overnight bounce in the energy and equity markets. Additional support came from improving demand for US goods, especially from China.
- The energy markets were higher with crude oil up over 5 bucks at 25.22.
- The US$ was stronger at 102.75, the gold market was down 8 bucks at 1471, CD$ was up 0.00330 at 0.68955.
- DJIA up 188 at 20087, S&P down 40 at 2363 and the NASDAQ up 161 at 7150.
- The next USD report is scheduled for March 31st at 11 AM CDT (2020 Planting Intentions and March 1 Grain Stocks).
- IEG Vantage pegs 2020 CRP acres at 21.846 million compared to 22.321 million in 2019. Prevent Plant acres are estimated at 2.671 million, down sharply form the 17.479 million acres of PP in 2019.
The corn market traded higher on bargain hunting and borrowed strength in the energy and equity markets. There was chatter that China was interested in US corn but there was no confirmation of that nor any flash sales suggesting that.
- Closes: May at $3.45 ½, up 9 ¾ cents, July at $3.51, up 8 ¼ cents, September at $3.55 ¾, up 6 ½ cents December at $3.63 ¼, up 4 ¾ cents.
- Weekly export sales were reported at 961 tmt, in line with expectations (600 tmt-1.4 mmt).
- South Korea has been a major buyer of corn this week.
- IEG Vantage pegs US corn plantings at 95.2 million acres, up from 93.4 in their January estimate.
- Texas corn plantings as of March 15 were estimated at 33% complete, Louisiana at 3% and Mississippi at 1%.
- Argentina’s corn exports are seen at 33.5 mmt, on par with the latest USDA forecast.
- Spreads: K/N 5 ½ carry, N/U 4 ¾ carry, N/Z 12 ½ carry, Z/N1 16 ¼ carry.
Soybeans traded sharply higher on borrowed strength in the meal pit. A rebound in crude oil provided additional support, along with logistical pickles in Brazil and talk of port strikes in Argentina. The canola market traded higher on strength in the US soy complex.
- Closes: May at $8.43 ¾, up 18 ¼ cents, July at $8.48, up 14 ¾ cents, August at $8.49 ¼, up 12 ¾ cents and November at $8.48 ½, up 5 ¾ cents. The products were sharply higher with meal up 10-11 bucks and oil up 45-50 points.
- Weekly export sales were reported at
- Trade talk is that the US sold China a couple of bean cargoes for April, thought to be off the PNW.
- IEG Vantage pegs US 2020 soybean plantings at 85.6 million, compared to their January estimate of 86.5 million acres.
- Brazil has received rain showers this week, but a drier pattern is expected next week in the central part of Brazil.
- Spreads: K/N 4 ¾ carry, N/Q 1 ¼ carry, N/X ½ carry, Q/X ¾ inverse, X/F ½ inverse, X/H 16 ½ inverse, X/N1 5 ¾ inverse.
Wheat prices continued to trade higher on hopes of increased demand and possible Chines purchases. Demand for pasta and bread from consumers that are now working from home provided additional support to the heat market.
- May closes: Mpls at $5.19 ¾ up 10 cents, KC at $4.65 ½, up 20 cents, Chicago at $5.35, up 26 cents.
- Weekly export sales were reported at 482 tmt, compared to trade estimates of 250-700 tmt.
- IEG pegs US “All Wheat” acres at 45.2 million, down from 45.53 million in their January report.
- By class estimates: winter wheat 30.804 million acres, Other Spring Wheat at 12.90 million acres, Durum at 1.495 million acres.
- Spreads: Mpls K/N 8 ¾ carry, Kansas City K/N 4 carry, K/K 39 ¾ narrowed in quite a bit this week on increased demand and basis appreciation.