Afternoon Market Highlights
5/11/2020 3:31:13 PM
Mixed day in the grains as the market awaits this afternoon’s planting progress/conditions report and tomorrow’s USDA monthly S&D report. States throughout the US work on getting re-opened and operating at full capacity once again. There were ideas that trade talks between the US and China would resume on Wednesday this week. Thoughts are that the economy would be more of a crawl back to it used to be than a sprint or full out run.
- USDA’s updated US and world balance tables along with the first assessment of winter wheat progress is scheduled for tomorrow at 11 AM CDT.
- CONAB is expected to release their updated production numbers for Brazil tomorrow.
- May 14 is the last trading day for May futures. Expiration takes place at noon.
- NOPA Crush for April is scheduled for Friday, May 15.
- The energy markets are mostly weaker with the June crude oil down 3 cents at 24.73 (23.67-25.58).
- The US$ is stronger, up 429 at 100.162, the gold market is down 14-15 bucks at 1699 and the CD$ is weaker at 0.71405 from CoronaVirus worries.
The corn market traded on the defensive ahead of tomorrow’s USDA S&D report. Ideas are that we will see in increase in ending stocks. Prices drew additional pressure from weakness in the crude oil market. The corn market received underlying support from a decent weekly export inspections figure.
- Closes: July at $3.17 ¾, down 1 ½ cents, September at $3.23 ¼, down 1 ½ cents and December at $3.34, down 1 ¾ cents.
- CIF premiums were mostly unchanged.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 1.3 mmt, above the top end of what the trade was looking for (900 tmt-1.2 mmt).
- Planting progress is estimated at 71% complete (67-78) compared to 51% last week. Actual number was reported at 67% with 24% emerged.
- Turkey is in the market for up to 250k tonnes of optional origin corn.
- Spreads: N/U 5 ¾ carry, U/Z 10 ½ carry, N/Z 16 ¼ carry, Z/H 13 ¼ carry, Z/N 25 ½ carry.
The soybean market traded higher on Chinese buying optimism and concerns of damage to the newly planted crop. Weekly export inspections were inline with trade expectations.
- Closes: July at $8.54 ¼, up 3 ¾ cents, August at $8.54 ¾, up 2 ¾ cents, November at $8.57 ½, up 2 cents. The products were weaker with meal down 70 cents and oil down 3 points.
- CIF premiums were 2-4 cents firmer for May and 2-3 cents firmer for June.
- Weekly export inspections were 496 tmt, mid-range of what the trade was looking for (350-700 tmt).
- Planting progress is estimated at 42% complete (37-50) compared to 23% last week. Actual number was reported at 38% planted and 7% emerged.
- Rumors were that China was interested in US soybeans for July through October from the PNW or gulf.
- Late in the day, the USD announced the sale of 240k tonnes of beans to China beginning in the month of July.
- The canola market traded higher in sympathy with the US soybean market in thin trade. Prices dew additional support from a bout of commercial buying and concerns about this weekend’s snowfall in parts of the country.
- Spreads: N/Q ¾ carry, N/X 3 ¼ carry, Q/X 2 ½ carry, X/F 1 ¼ carry, X/H 14 inverse, X/N 1 ¼ inverse.
The wheat market was mixed with Mpls showing a bit of strength against weakness in KC and Chicago. Prices drew pressure from position evening ahead of tomorrow’s USDA’s data and a disappointing weekly export inspections number. The traded did not seem to be too awful concerned about damage to the SRW crop from this weekend’s chilly temperatures.
- July closes: Mpls at $5.18 ¾, up 2 ¾ cents, KC at $4.75 ¾, down 4 ¼ cents, and Chicago at $5.16 ½, down 5 ½ cents.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 340 tmt, below what the trade was looking for (40-650 tmt).
- Spring wheat planting is estimated at 49% complete (44-60) compared to 29% last week. Actual planting number came in at 42% with 16% emerged.
- Winter wheat conditions are expected to be down 1% (from last week) to 54% G/E. Actual conditions were reported at 53% G/E, down 2%, with 44% headed.
- Algeria seeks 50k tonnes of optional origin milling wheat.
- EU wheat exports for July-May 10 are up 61% at 29.15 mmt. This compares to 18.05 mmt this time last year.
- Paris million wheat was slightly easier in thin trade as it awaits results of the newly announced Algerian tender for milling wheat. Pressured stemmed from recent bouts of moisture for Europe and the Black Sea Region.
- Spreads: Mpls N/U 10 ¾ carry, U/Z 11 ¾ carry, Kansas City N/U 7 ¼ carry, U/Z 11 ¾ carry.