Afternoon Market Highlights
5/18/2020 2:28:22 PM
The grain markets were mixed with the row crops garnering strength from outside markets and Chinese buying optimism. The wheat market saw pressure from beneficial rains in the US Southern Plains, along with rains in Europe, Black Sea and Australia. Farmer engagement is basically a non-event as the focus is on field work from the 2019 harvest to fertilizer applications and planting.
- The energy market is mostly higher with the June contract trading up 2.78 at 32.21 (June expires tomorrow).
- The US$ down 749 at 99.65, the gold market down 19-20 bucks at 1734 and the CD$ up 0.00765 at 0.71650.
- DJIA is up a whopping 929 at 24615 as the country continues to get reopened and getting businesses back in operation. The S&P is up 105 at 2952 and NASDAQ up 221 at 9236.
- Next week will be a shortened trading week for the grain markets, in observance of the Memoria Day Holiday on Monday.
- Grain markets close on Friday afternoon, no trade Sunday or Monday. Trade is scheduled to resume Monday evening at 7 PM CDT.
- Chatter is that China has concerns for a possible 2nd wave of CoronaVirus and potential for disruptions in the supply chain.
The corn market traded slightly higher on a bout of short covering and strength in the crude oil market. Gains were limited from rapid planting progress, big crop ideas (ending stocks) and weakness in the wheat market.
- Closes: July at $3.21, up 1 ¾ cents, September at $3.24 ½, up 1 ½ cents, December at $3.32 ¾, up ¾ cents.
- July failed to climb to its 30-Day MA of $3.22 ¾, with a high of $3.22. The December contract tickled its 20-Day MA of $3.34 but failed to hold or push above that level.
- CIF premiums were 4 cents firmer for this week, 3 cents firmer for the balance and 2 cents firmer for June.
- Another good week of inspections at 1.2mmt, just below the top end of what the trade was expecting.
- Planting progress is expected to be near 81% complete through Sunday (79-87) compared to 67% planted last week.the first conditions report is thought to come once the crop has reached over 90% planted.
- Spreads: N/U 3 ¼ carry, N/Z 12 carry, U/Z 8 ½ carry, Z/H 12 ¼ carry, Z/N 24 ¾ carry.
The soybean market traded higher on borrowed strength in the soyoil market, crude oil and Chinese buying optimism for US goods. Soyoil strength came from crude oil and unwinding of long meal/oil spread activity.
- Closes: July at $8.44 ½, up 6 cents, August at $8.47, up 6 ¼ cents, November at $8.52, up 6 ½ cents.
- The July contract climbed above its 30-Day MA of $8.47 but failed to hold at or above that level. The November closed just shy of its 30-Day MA of $8.52 ¾.
- CIF premiums were 2 cents firmer this week, unchanged for the balance and unchanged for June.
- Weekly inspections were a bit disappointing at 352 tmt, near the low end of the trade estimates.
- Planting progress is expected to be near 56% complete through Sunday (50-63) versus 38% reported last week.
- Spreads: N/Q 3 carry, N/X 7 ¾ carry, Q/X 4 ¾ carry, X/F 3 carry, X/H 4 ¾ inverse, X/N ½ inverse.
The wheat market was weaker on plentiful supplies and weak demand for US wheat. Mpls lagged KC and Chicago from delayed spring wheat planting. KC saw additional pressure from beneficial rains in the HRW area over the weekend.
- July closes: Mpls July at $5.04 ¾, down 1 ½ cents, KC at $4.47 ½, down 4 ¾ cents, Chicago at $4.97 ½, down 2 ¾ cents.
- Weekly export inspections were 441 tmt, in line with what the trade was looking for. Most wheat targets are expected to be reached with about three weeks left in the marketing year.
- Planting progress is expected to be near 60% complete through Sunday (56-66) compared to 42% last week.
- Winter wheat conditions are expected to be near 53% G/E (51-55), unchanged form last week at 53% G/E.
- Paris milling wheat prices were lower in sympathy with the US wheat market.
- Spreads: Mpls N/U 11 ½ carry, U/Z 13 ½ carry, Kansas City N/U 6 ¼ carry, U/Z 13 ½ carry.