Midday in the Markets


Highlights

What a week! Farmers scramble to get the soybean crop out of the fields ahead of this week’s winter blast. China bought a significant amount of beans ahead of this week’s trade talks.  Trade talks are said to be going well. Next week’s harvest progress report will be delayed until Tuesday in observance of the Columbus Day Holiday.     

  • Ag markets do trade regular hours on Monday, although there will be no USDA data (inspections, harvest progress etc.).
  • November options expire at the close on October 25th. First Notice Day for November futures would be October 31st with all long positions reported after the close on October 30th.
  • CHS Hedging is offering Energy Hedging classes on January 23rd at the Inver Grove Heights office. Check the website for registration and agenda at www.chshedging.com.
  • Trade talks are thought to be positive after the first day of negotiations.Hopes are that a deal can be reached, or a partial deal can be reached and that there will be a delay in imposing next week’s tariff hikes.
  • The energy markets are stronger with crude oil up another buck at $54.60/barrel.
  • The US$ stepped back today, breaking 99 points, the gold market got thumped, with morning trade down 16-17 bucks at $1,480/ounce and the CD$ slightly firmer at 0.75950.
  • Wall Street is trading higher with the DJIA up 452 at 26948, S&P up 51 at 2993 and the NASDAQ up 151 at 8102. 

Corn

Corn prices rebounded today after yesterday’s fallout.  Bargain hunters surfaced at the lower board prices. Processor bids remain stronger as they struggle to get corn bought for future month’s grind.  Ethanol margins were reported at +8 cents in Nebraska and +5 cents in Iowa.Harvest could be a slow go after this week’s storm passes through the US Midwest. 

  • Midday prices: December at $3.95 ¼, up 15 cents, July at $4.14, up 11-12 cents, September at $4.06 ½, up 6 cents and red Dec at $4.09 ¾, up 4-5 cents.
  • Harvest progress was at 15% complete through last Sunday, with expectations for 20-25% complete through Sunday, October 13th.
  • Spreads: Z/H 9 ¾ carry, H/K 5 ¼ carry, Z/N 18 ¾ carry, Z/Z 14 ½ carry, N0/Z0 4 ½ inverse. 

Oilseeds

Soybean prices got a twirl after yesterday’s friendly USDA data. Harvest progress was last reported at 14% complete.  SA still wrestles with more than desired dryness, resulting in a slower than normal planting season. On a continuous chart, soybeans are trading at pre-US/China trade war values. 

  • Midday prices: November at $9.33 ½, up 9-10 cents, January at $9.47 ¾, up 10-11 cents, July at $9.75, up 6-7 cents and red November at $9.71, up 3-4 cents. The products are higher with meal up 3-4 bucks and oil up 15 points.
  • Harvest progress is expected to be around 20-25% complete.......North Dakota maybe 12-15% complete. The farmer ran hard for two days this week to get the beans harvested.
  • Spreads: X/F 14 ½ carry, F/H 11 ½ carry, F/K 19 carry, X/N 41 ¾ carry.

 Continuous Soybean Chart


 Wheat

The wheat market traded higher on short covering and a little help from its friends in the row crops. Yesterday’s USDA report was not all that friendly for wheat. Price support stems from ongoing dryness in Argentina and Australia, along with harvest delays in the Canadian Prairies from rain/snow weather conditions. Additional support stems from hopes of positives things from this week’s trade talks with China. 

  • Midday December prices: Mpls up 12-13 at $5.35 ½, KC up 18-19 at $4.21 ½, Chicago up 18-19 at $5.11 ¼.
  • Tunisia looks to purchase 50k tonnes of optional origin milling wheat for November shipment. The lowest offers came in at $220.49 & $221.49/tonne.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 14 carry, Z/Z 48 carry, Kansas City Z/H 12 carry, Z/Z 55 carry.