Morning Highlight


Highlights                

  • Rains and cooler temps still in the forecasts for the weekend and next week.
  • Sept 30th USDA will put out the Sept 1 quarterly stocks report and small grains report. It will also be month end and quarter end, so likely a lot of squaring up of positions.
  • USDA quarterly Hog and Pig report will be out this afternoon, expecting to show 2.8% increase.
  • The next official China / US trade meeting is scheduled for October 10th .
  • U. S. Dollar index +-.044 @ 99.163, Dow futures +70 @ 26,962, Crude Oil futures -.57 @ $55.82.

        

Corn

  • The International Grains Council – IGC, lowered its global corn production estimate 1 mil tons to 1.099 bil.
  • CZ19 traded down through its 10 day moving average [3.72], but finished back above that level. Overnight it did gap lower, trading back below that level.
  • The European Commission lowered EU corn production estimate 2 mil to 66.5 mil tons.
  • Forecasts see high probability of cool, wet conditions into next week for the northwestern corn belt.
  • CME corn open interest was up 10,000 contracts yesterday. CME also lowered corn margins $150, taking effect after the close today.

 Outlook: back to the gaunt demand story for corn, and lower prices ensued.  Spreads were weaker in the flat price sell off as well. The theme for the week has been, corn needs demand help – especially going into the fall harvest period.  US corn export sales currently are way behind [around 9 mil tons] where we were last year at this time. CZ did manage to regain early losses late in the session. Calls: 1-2 lower

 

Oilseeds

  • Trade now estimates that China has bought between 2-3 mil tons of US soybeans through the end of this week.
  • SX19 has had trade mostly at or above the 100 day moving average [8.88] this week.

 

Outlook: beans retained a calm supportive tone, with more small dabs of China bean sales making the daily reporting system news. Likely we’ll see sideways trade going into Monday’s report. Calls: 1-2 lower

 

 Wheat

  • Trade estimates for Monday’s Stocks report for all wheat average 2.318 bil bushels compared to last year at 2.390 bil.
  • Rains, cold, and possible snow are the weather items the northern HRS market is dealing with along the Canadian border. The remainder of the HRS harvest will be very slow, and quality likely poor.
  • Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecast another 3 months of drought/dry conditions with above normal temps.
  • IKAR left their Russian wheat estimate at 75 mil tons [the Ag Ministry before had come out with a 78 mil ton figure this week].
  • The European Commission raised its wheat estimate 2.3 mil tons to 145 mil tons.

Outlook: Chicago wheat finally found some interest yesterday, holding ‘rebound’ gains for most of the session. Also, more talk of HRW feedwheat trades out into JFM slots. There was even talk that some US SRW had traded into eastern Canadian feed channels. And the spring wheat quality saga will most certainly continue next week. Calls: 2-4 higher