1/18/2019 7:09:08 AM
- Grain markets will be closed Sunday night through Monday’s regular close due to Martin Luther King Day. Grain markets will reopen on Monday night at 7:00 pm.
- At last look the US Dollar index was down 0.035 to 96.030 points.
- The Dow Jones mini futures are up 164 points overnight to 24,485.
- The energy markets moved higher overnight. Nearby crude is up $0.61 to $52.68 per barrel.
- The US government has now been in a partial shutdown for 28 days. President Trump and Democrats have not been at negotiations since last Wednesday.
- There will be no commitment of traders released today due to the partial shutdown.
- The corn market was higher on follow through buying from the large move yesterday, as well as trading in sympathy with the soybean complex.
- The lowest offer for Turkey’s tender for 342,000 tonnes of corn was at $195/ton C&F. No purchase has been made yet.
- Indonesia delayed the deadline for their tender of 30,000 tonnes of corn.
- March corn was able to break through the 50 and 100 moving averages yesterday. Support should now come from the 50 day MA of 378’4, while new resistance is seen at 384’4.
- Chinese corn futures were up 2 cents overnight.
- Spreads: H/K 8 ¼ cent carry, K/N 7 ¾ cent carry, H/Z 24 ¼ cent carry.
Outlook: Higher trade off the open on continued technical buying and improved demand.
- The soybean market continued to make a move higher on confusion over potential tariff changes reported yesterday.
- The Wallstreet Journal published a story yesterday that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had proposed lifting the tariffs on Chinese imports in an effort to speed negotiations, which ran equity markets higher late in the day. However, a spokesman then said “neither Secretary Mnuchin nor Ambassador Lighthizer have made any recommendations to anyone with respect to tariffs. . . This is an ongoing process with the Chinese that is nowhere near completion”.
- Dryness is expected to continue over the next five days in Brazil and Argentina, but the 6-10 day forecast is showing rain developing in Southern Brazil and most of Argentina.
- China’s Ag Ministry reported another case of African Swine Fever in the Gansu province.
- Malaysian palm oil was up 28 ringgits to 2,181 ringgits. Weekly change of up 15 ringgits. Chinese soybean futures down another 3 cents overnight. Chinese soymeal futures are still sitting just above 3-year lows.
- Spreads: H/K 13 ½ cent carry, H/N 26 cent carry, N/X 13 cent carry.
Outlook: Higher trade off the open as we try to maintain the technical buying, however, if the trade confusion turns out to show we are no better off, we may not be able to hold our strength today.
- The wheat markets are trading at the top end of the range we have set over the past month on rumors of more wheat getting sold to the Asian markets.
- Philippines importers purchased about 85,000 tonnes of feed wheat earlier this week. The US was seen as a possible origin for 50,000 tons of that tender at $260/ton C&F.
- Interfax is reporting that Russia’s Ag Ministry plans on regulating domestic grain prices in an effort to maintain stability on the market.
- China sold another 2,000 tonnes of imported wheat at state auction overnight.
- March Chicago wheat set a high of 522’6 overnight and was unable to break through the 523’0 resistance point.
- Spreads: H/K Chicago 5 ¼ cent carry, KC 9 ¾ cent carry, Mpls 4 ¾ cent carry.
Outlook: Choppy to higher trade off the open, but technical sellers may step into the market if wheat moves too much higher.