Morning Highlights


  • The weather forecast this morning shows rains in the far southwestern growing belt in the 1-5 day outlook, and increased chances for showers in the central and western Midwest in the 6-10 day outlook. Below normal temperatures continue through the entire 1-15 day outlook.
  • The final day of the North Dakota Wheat Quality Council tour is today, essentially traveling from Devils Lake to Fargo. CHS Hedging is reporting from the tour via Twitter at @hedgeit and @hedgeit_jhof. 
  • The U.S. dollar is down .09 at 82.19 on the index, crude oil is down .98 at 104.43, and S&P 500 futures are +6.00 at 1677.75.


  • South Korea’s KFA bought 60 tmt of Black Sea origin corn for January arrival.
  • The USDA attaché to Mexico estimates corn production there at 21.9 mmt, down from the July official USDA estimate of 23 mmt on drought.
  • Weekly export sales were -28 tmt old-crop and 516 tmt new-crop. Estimates were 450-1,000 tmt.

Outlook:  Below-normal temps boosting production prospects


  • Open interest in the August contract is at 27,967, down 7,039. August futures are down over $1.70 from the 2013 high made about 52 hours ago. For comparison, November open interest is at 330K.
  • Most active Malaysian palm oil futures were down 2.3%, extending the slide that has taken prices to the lowest level since 2009.
  • Monsanto is offering to discount its newest GMO soybean seed for Brazilian farmers who drop their claims that Monsanto should repay royalty fees on seed purchased after the original patent expired in 2010. The newest variety provides both herbicide tolerance and insect resistance.
  • Weekly export sales were 128 tmt old-crop and 665 tmt new-crop. Estimates were 300-600 tmt. Meal sales were 184 tmt old and 146 tmt new. Oil sales were 3 tmt old and 0 new.

Outlook:  Old-crop and new-crop convergence bringing prices down


  • South Korea’s KFA bought 60 tmt of Black Sea origin wheat for November arrival.
  • Japan bought 107 tmt of milling wheat split between the U.S., Canada, and Australia. The purchases from the U.S. were 29 tmt of HRW and 33 tmt of DNS.
  • Yield from the second day of the Wheat Quality Council tour in North Dakota was estimated at 45.1, compared to last year at 45.5 and the 5-year average of 42.6. The second day covers the northern and western part of the state. The two-day cumulative average is running even with last year.
  • Milling wheat in Paris is down .25 to 190.00 euro/tonne.
  • Weekly export sales were 661 tmt. Estimates were 350-600 tmt.


Outlook:  Mixed under pressure from the row crops and a decent export sales number