Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Egypt declared a month-long state of emergency after clashes yesterday left hundreds dead. Egypt's stock exchange and banks were closed for the first time since the January 2011 civil uprising.
  • U.S. jobless claims fell 15,000 to 320,000 for the week ended Aug. 10, the lowest level since October 2007.
  • SocGen reported a net outflow in June of $16.8 billion in assets under management for raw materials, with Agricultural commodities down $4.86 billion, precious metals down $4.74 billion, and energy down $4.73 billion.
  • As of 7:20am: crude oil is up 0.47, S&P futures are down 9.50. US$ index is down 0.203.

Corn

  • Overnight weather models showed drier condition in the Midwest through the balance of August, with temperatures reaching the mid 90s in the upper Plains and western Corn Belt and near 90 degrees in the eastern Corn Belt.
  • The Buenos Aires grains exchange dropped its estimate of the Argentine corn crop from 3.68 million hectares to 3.56 million hectares.
  • Taiwan Sugar Corp. bought 29,000 MT of U.S. corn at $277.13/ton C&F for Sep-Oct shipment.
  • Strategie Grains cut its EU corn production estimate by 0.2 million tons to 65.7 million tons, with increases in Romania, Bulgaria and Spain being offset with decreases for French, Austrian, and Hungarian production.
  • Export sales were -59,100 MT old crop and 836,100 MT new crop vs an estimate of 300-600 MT.

Outlook: A drier forecast for the ear filling period is helping corn attempt to extend yesterday's gains, but selling pressure should come from the overall negative outlook.

Oilseeds

  • China sold 198,976 tonnes of soybeans from state reserves in their latest auction, 40% of the volume offered, at $640 per tonne. Last week they sold just 18% of offered volume at auction.
  • NOPA crush estimates for July range from 110.0 million to 120.0 million, with an average guess of 116.4 million bushels vs 119.051 million last month. U.S. soybean supplies are projected to reach a 9 year low by the end of August.
  • Taiwan Sugar Corp. bought 5,000 MT of U.S. soybeans at $574/ton C&F for Sep-Oct shipment.
  • Export data for the first half of August showed a 17.7% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports to 644,589 tonnes.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures were up 22 ringgits at 2,299. China's Dalian market showed soybeans up 6 3/4, soymeal up 8.20, and soyoil up 7. Corn futures were up 1 3/4.
  • Export sales were -10,500 MT old crop and 1,890,000 MT new crop vs an estimate of 600-1,100 MT.

Outlook: Nov beans traded 14 1/2 higher overnight, breaking through the 100 day moving average at 12.45 1/2, but found strong resistance. Look for bulls to try pushing above that level again.

Wheat

  • Taiwan Flour Millers Association bought 101,500 MT of U.S. wheat for Sep-Oct shipment. They bought DNS at $343.98/ton and $345.92/ton FOB, HRW at $330.35/ton and $332.63/ton FOB, and Western White wheat at $291.44/ton FOB.
  • Strategie Grains increased its EU soft wheat estimate by 0.8 million tons to 134.2 million tons. The increase in acreage came from Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary.
  • Export sales were 490,100 MT vs an estimate of 600-800 MT.

Outlook: Flat with no fresh news as wheat continues to lose some premium to corn.