Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Valero Energy is calling on EPA to revisit the RFS ethanol volume requirements, adding to recent requests from the American Petroleum institute and other refiners.
  • Average trade estimates for USDA report:  corn production – 13.620 bil bu, yield 153.69 bpa;  bean production – 3.140 bil bu, yield 41.172 bpa  Wheat crop updates won’t be included in this report, but will be updated at the end of the month’s September stocks report.  The report comes out at 11:00 a.m. central time.
  • Weather forecasts show light but expanding moisture potential for the southwestern winter wheat areas. Light rains extending into the Ohio Valley this a.m.  Longer term forecasts bringing more chances for rains into play 7-10 days out.
  • Equity markets put in a fourth straight day of solid gains.
  • House Speaker Boehner says to expect a new farm bill in the House of Representatives by the end of September.
  • U.S. dollar index futures flat at 81.519, DOW index futures steady at 15,338, crude futures +.87 at 108.43.

 

Corn

  • Weekly U.S. ethanol production came in at 848,000 bpd, up 29,000 from last week.  Ethanol stocks were up slightly to 16.3 mil barrels.
  • Ukraine Ag ministry raised its corn production estimate for 2013 to 29 mil tons versus the previous 26 mil.
  • Average 13/14 corn carryout estimate is 1.732 bil bu for report this morning.
  • The market is not expecting USDA to incorporate any acreage adjustments until the October report.
  • The trade is expecting corn export sales to come in a range from 400-500,000 tons.  Actual sales for last week totaled 332,000 tons.

 

Outlook: Slightly lower, down 1 to 3 cents. The corn spec position is short.  No doubt some of this is short against long beans as a spread.  But some talk of commercial longs being sizable as well.

 

Oilseeds

  • Soybean export basis continues to show a weaker trend in September bids/offers.
  • China sold 346,000 tons [out of 501,000 offered] of state reserve beans in their weekly auction.
  • Average 13/14 bean carryout expectation is 165 mil bu for report this morning.
  • .The trade is expecting bean export sales to come in a range of 650-800,000 tons, meal 70-230,000 tons, and bean oil from 10-20,000 tons.
  • Export sales for last week totaled 478,000 tons soybeans, 111,000 meal, bean oil 4,500.

 

 

Outlook: 2 to 6 cents lower. The specs go into this report with the largest net long bean position seen all year, and a lot at risk.  Big payoff if the report is ‘uber’ bullish, but all those longs have a reason to sell something.

 

 

Wheat

  • Iraq issued a wheat tender, with offers good through September 22nd.
  • Nigeria bought 120k tons of US wheat yesterday.
  • Japan bought 115,000 tons wheat in their weekly tender, including 40,000 US.
  • Total US wheat export shipments so far of 8.932 mil tons versus last year of 6.825 mil, with 6.89 mil of open sales on the books versus last year of 4.652 mil. China sales comprise 3.761 mil tons of US business so far.
  • India still plans to export at least 2.0 mil tons of wheat this year, even though their minimum price of $300/ton seems uncompetitive according to their state run food agency.
  • Strategie Grains increased its EU soft wheat harvest estimate 1.3 mil tons to 135.5 mil total.
  • Average 13/14 carryout for wheat is expected to be 551 mil bu.
  • The trade is expecting wheat export sales to range from 400-650,000 tons.  Actual export sales for last week totaled 544,000 tons.

 

Outlook:  Flat/steady. The wheat market is starting to resemble paint drying! The market will watch for any increase in US wheat exports in the report, and then focus on end of the month stocks report for ideas of increased wheat feed use.