10/17/2013 7:22:12 AM
- Late yesterday a short term deal was made and approved by congress and the president. The government is reopened and a long term deal must be made by the middle of December.
- Harvest weather looks more favorable in the coming days. Forecasts are showing good weather through next week that will allow harvest to resume.
- Although the government shutdown has ended and the government is reopened, most if not all reports are expected to be delayed as people head back to work. Traders expect reports to begin getting released on Monday.
- The USDA will announce on Friday whether it plans to release an October report or if it will release the October and November reports together.
- It has not been confirmed but it appears that China has bought 1.2 mmt of US corn.
Outlook: Steady/firmer on expectations of strong exports.
- It is unclear when reports will be released updating us on the exports over the past few weeks. Traders are expecting export numbers to portray strong interest in US soybeans.
- Weather continues to see some attention while farmers continue with soybean harvest. Some traders are putting soybean harvest near 60% complete. The 6-10 day forecasts are showing favorable conditions allowing soybean harvest to wrap up.
- Soybean basis has improved over the past few days due to the weather causing a delay in harvest. Farmer selling has been light and with the government reopened a large export number could cause a rally in cash price.
- Export meal premiums have continued to be strong. Record high levels globally are being seen with the US supply being the most competitive.
Outlook: Steady/Firmer on rumors of strong exports and technical support.
- News continues to be light but traders are expecting wheat exports to be strong once the USDA can release the updated export numbers for the 3 week shutdown.
- Russia and Ukraine are experiencing planting delays due to wet soil conditions. This news suggests smaller crops for 2014.
- Wheat saw some unwinding of wheat/corn spreads over the past few sessions. This has brought pressure to wheat futures, pulling prices off its one-to-two-week-ago highs.
Outlook: Higher on profit taking and technical support.