2/17/2017 7:15:33 AM
- Grain and oil seed markets continue to see follow-through selling after yesterday’s sell-off.
- As of 7:00 am: Crude oil futures are down 25¢ at $53.13 per barrel, gold is $0.60 higher an ounce at $1,240.60, US dollar $0.13 higher at 100.6300, and the DJIA up 8 points at 20,619.
- The bird flu virus that continues to spread across China may be worse than originally thought. The virus has been linked to a 100 human deaths this winter alone and continues to grow. The government is planning implementing stricter surveillance in order help slow the spread of the virus.
- Presidents’ Day: Grain markets are closed Sunday PM and Monday. CHS Hedging will have staff in the office from 8:00 am until noon CT on Monday, February 20th to take orders. Energy markets are open until noon on Monday and will resume trading at 5:00 pm CDT. Overnight grain trading opens back up at 7:00 pm CDT.
- We will be holding Energy Hedging classes on Thursday, March 16 in Colby, KS at the City Limits Convention Center and Wednesday, March 22 in Champaign, IL. Sign-up and the agenda will be available soon at www.chshedging.com.
- March open interest continues to deteriorate due to liquidation and spreading ahead of first notice day. First Notice Day is February 28. The March Agricultural contracts expire on March 14.
- Iowa biofuels supporters ask that EPA nominee, Scott Pruitt, reject any changes to the RFS that is currently being advocated by billionaire, Carl Icahn. A reduction in the RFS would be a blow to the agricultural sector.
- Corn prices still at attractive levels, but 5¢-10¢ more would increase farmer engagement.
- Spreads; H/K 7 ¼¢ carry, K/N 7¢ carry and N/Z 11 ½¢ carry.
- Open interest: March corn 341,505, May 533,401 and July 282,230 contracts.
Outlook: 3 to 4 cents lower following the soybean complex.
- Overnight in China the soybeans traded down 26 ¼¢, soymeal was down $7.50 and soyoil dropped 96 points.
- Palm oil closed down 70 ringgits to 2,859 basis the May contract. Palm oil prices are down 137 ringgits this week.
- Palm oil futures fell to a new 12-week low overnight, pushing CBOT soybeans to 5-month lows.
- Weather remains favorable in South America in the 1-5 day forecast.
- Spreads: H/K 10 ¾¢ carry, K/N 8 ½¢ carry and N/X widened back out to a 38 ½¢ inverse.
- Open interest: March soybeans 165,111, March soymeal 69,260 and March soyoil 84,348 contracts.
Outlook: Look for the soybean to trade lower.
Outlook: Chicago and KC wheat both lower to start the morning. Mpls slightly higher after yesterday’s selloff.
- Warmer weather in the Southern Plains have traders on edge that winter is still not over and there is still the risk of a freeze event in the winter wheat crop.
- The French wheat crop remains in good shape with 92 percent of soft wheat rated as good or excellent and 85 percent of durum wheat rated as good or excellent.
- Spreads; Mpls H/K 5 ½¢ carry, Kansas City H/K 12 ¾¢ carry and Chicago H/K last traded at 13 ¼¢ carry.
- Open interest: March Chicago wheat: 123,850, March KC 41,519 and Mpls March 19,011 contracts.