Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • CME updated its daily price limits with one change, soybean meal limit increased from $20.00 to $25.00/ton.
  • May options expire today, April 21, 2017. Strikes with highest open interest are $3.60 and $3.70 for corn, and $10.00 and $9.80 for soybeans.
  • As of 7:00 am CT, crude oil is down 10 cents to $50.61/barrel, gold is up $2.00 at $1283.90, DOW up 9 to 20537, dollar index is up 88, and Euro is down 290 pts.

Corn

  • Updated 6-10 day forecasts show big rains for the Plains and Midwest, with flooding potential that would delay planting.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports Argentine corn harvest is 22.6% complete vs 20.8% last year. Their crop estimate was left unchanged at 37 MMT.
  • Cattle on feed estimates for this afternoon’s report at 2pm CT are as follows: on feed 99.7%, placed 106.5%, marketed 109.4%.

Outlook: Open interest flipped yesterday, as May position exiting continued but July increased 33.2k contracts, adding new short positions. July corn tested and failed to take out its 50 week moving average $3.78 for a third straight week.

Oilseeds

  • Abiove raised their Brazil soybean production estimate to 110.7 million metric tons, compared to USDA 111 MMT and CONAB 110.2 MMT. They are estimating February crush down 3-9% at 3-3.2 MMT.
  • BAGE reports Argentine soybean harvest is 16.3% complete, now ahead of last year’s 15% pace, at 10.7 MMT with yields down slightly from last week.
  • Rosario port workers in Argentina are holding protests, as they are looking for a 40% increase in wages. This is expected to continue for one or two days a week until the end of the month. 

Outlook: Traders have noted a recent pattern of early support from meal that erodes throughout the session. Meal was up $1.60/ton overnight, so we’ll see if the trend continues. Soybeans met resistance at the 100 week moving average on Monday and have traded lower since then.

Wheat 

  • Stats Canada estimates 2017/18 all wheat acreage at 22.5 million acres, down 3.5% from last year and the lowest in 6 year. Canola acreage is seen at 21.3 million acres, up 4.6% and the second highest on record. Barley acreage is estimated at 6.0 million.
  • FranceAgriMer estimates French wheat crop conditions at 85% good-to-excellent, down 4% from last week. The next few weeks will be important for yields, with dryness a concern.
  • Australian Crop Forecasters estimate the Aussie wheat crop at 25.6 MMT, down from 35.1 MMT last year. USDA’s attaché in Australia estimates the crop at 24 MMT, and lowered the 2016/17 export forecast from 25 MMT to 23 MMT due to logistical problems.
  • Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports that a recent cold snap did not affect yields for spring or winter crops.

Outlook: New contract lows made yesterday on a 16k increase in open interest. Total wheat open interest is now a record 532k contracts.