Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • The last trading day for November futures is today. Futures expire at noon.
  • NOPA’s October soybean crush report is scheduled for release today with trade estimates of 162-163 mb of beans crushed and oil stocks at 1.38-1.39 billion pounds.
  • US$ weaker, CD$ higher and gold $3-$4 weaker.
  • Energy markets are weaker with crude down 25 at 56.51.

Corn

  • The corn market continues to have a tough time going anywhere. It traded in a ¾-1 cent range overnight. Dec can’t seem to bust through its contract low of $3.40 ¾, despite the monster crop the USDA says we have. 
  • Fund short is near 254,000 contracts with the record short position near 265,000 contracts.
  • Open interest in the December corn was last reported at 577,636 contracts.
  • Harvest was reported at 83% complete, below 91% on average, which encourages some thoughts of lower yields in the last of the crop to be harvested.
  • Spreads; Z/H 12 ½ carry, Z/K 21 carry, Z/N 29 carry, H/K 8 ½ carry.

Outlook: slightly lower, rangebound type trade to continue

Soybeans

  • The soybean market turned higher overnight on bargain-buying.  Processor bids are steady to firm.
  • The funds are now showing a slight short position (100 contracts) in soybeans.
  • January palm oil closed at 2,717, down 44 ringgits on weakness in US and Chinese soyoil markets.  Slowing exports also weighed on the palm oil market.
  • China’s soybean market was down 14 ½ cents and their soyoil market was down 37 points.
  • US soybean harvest was reported at 93% complete versus 90% last week and 95% on average.
  • Focus will be on SA weather as we go forward to the end of the year.  The 6-10 day outlook suggests mostly dry for Argentina and healthy rains for much of Brazil.
  • The canola market was on holiday yesterday, but resumed trade today, with prices lower on recent weakness in US soybean and soyoil market.
  • Spreads; F/H 11 carry, H/K 9 ½ carry, K/N 8 ¾ carry, N/X 15 ¾ inverse.

Outlook:  slight bounce with focus on SA weather conditions

Wheat

  • The wheat market traded lower on lack of fresh supportive news. The US$ is stronger this morning and Russia continues to be stiff competition for the US in the world market.
  • Japan tenders for their routine food tender (125,611 tonnes).  They do not have US spring wheat listed this week (US WW 40,025, HRW 25,505, Canadian spring wheat 35,181 and Australian white wheat 24,900).
  • Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat.
  • Winter wheat conditions were reported at 54% G/E, 95% planted and 84% up and growing. Lat week’s conditions were rated 55% G/E and last year’s ratings were at 59% G/E.
  • Spreads; Mpls Z/H 13 ¼ carry, Kansas City Z/H 16 ¾ carry, Chicago Z/H 17 ¾ carry. Mpls premium over Kc and Chicago holds over $2.

Outlook:  lower trade, stronger US$, lack of fresh news to push prices higher